Lagos state records1.6m cars on its road daily according to the MOT. 227 cars per km compared to the national average of 11 cars per km. The state is built up, right of ways gone, no hope for new roads or further expansion. A PPP driven mass transit system
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Is the way forward. Out of the 1.6m cars, about 300,000 are commercial cars.

Trains are expensive so quick wins are PPP managed mass transit buses. The state doesn't need to fund it, the potential is huge. The state needs to regulate, LAMATA is the regulator not NURTW.

As a governor, I will dimension the problems

1. I need 1m people to drop their cars and embrace public transportation in few years.

2. How do they spend on fuel and car maintenance monthly?

3. How much will they spend if they use buses?

1 million car users who spend 1,000 each on a daily basis = N1bn daily revenue outside the danfo system. Don't disrupt that yet.

So I will create incentives, tax breaks for using the public system instead of your car. 2 free trips a week.

Two free trips on a weekly basis will tilt the revenue in the short term but it's still huge for any investor to latch on.

I will get a tech company to aggregate users, get their data, income bracket, type of car used, house address, time spent in transit daily etc.

I won't charge any fees for park and ride in the short term. Parking is free as long as you can provide your bus ticket for the trip. Parking fees of N500 - N1000 + cost of bus ticket may be a barrier.

The buses will run on LPG because I need to keep my costs flat.

Tech, bus investors, LPG suppliers, ticketing companies, drivers, mechanics, parking lot operators will create taxable income in the long run for the state.

I will concession the bus stops to private operators, they must be clean, secured, WiFi enabled, friendly to use etc.

Bus stop owners will get a share of the income depending on the usage of their facility.

The danfo system is not my headache, I need 1m people to drop their cars so that the roads can be free since I cannot construct roads.

Road construction is more expensive.

No need for BRT lanes and BRT bus parks. All I need to do is to create a system that will get at least 1m cars off the road on a daily basis. The roads will be free.

When I am done with car owners, I will sit down with danfo users and danfo owners.

1m car uses will fit into 15,000 eighty seater buses. With all routes properly mapped. In the next 15 years, Lagos state will have no land to build roads except across the waters. Especially on the island.

The danfo system will be the next point of call. That is a discussion for another day..
Adios
#Transport101