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Quick lesson on the cost of poor vaccination priorities.
Vaccinating the wrong person in Ontario costs up to $5,000 per vaccine.
Sounds absurd, right? Let's run through some quick napkin math on why that might be an underestimate.
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Vaccinating the wrong person in Ontario costs up to $5,000 per vaccine.
Sounds absurd, right? Let's run through some quick napkin math on why that might be an underestimate.
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2/ The economy is shut down because of a very specific demographic of people are impacted by widespread outbreaks — essential workers (less healthcare).
Teachers, grocery clerks, food processors, warehouse employees, and restaurant employees.
Shutting down is expensive.
Teachers, grocery clerks, food processors, warehouse employees, and restaurant employees.
Shutting down is expensive.
3/ Ontario is spending $186 billion on COVID related programs, like floating small businesses over the next year.
That averages $0.5 billion per day. Then there's federal programs like CRB, EI+, etc.. Then add the lost revenue for businesses, and the cost of financing it...
That averages $0.5 billion per day. Then there's federal programs like CRB, EI+, etc.. Then add the lost revenue for businesses, and the cost of financing it...
4/ The debt the government is going to have to borrow to keep people going, also incurs interest until at least 2031.
It's a fair estimate, the cost of a shutdown is ~$1.5 billion per day, but let's be optimistic and say it's just a billion.
$1 billion per day.
It's a fair estimate, the cost of a shutdown is ~$1.5 billion per day, but let's be optimistic and say it's just a billion.
$1 billion per day.
5/ Now, back to those vaccines. Ontario's vaccinating about 100k people day now that it's shut down. They're in hyperdrive, almost 40% more than yesterday.
Even at that pace, it takes 90 days to just the first shot in all of the population. First. Shot.
Even at that pace, it takes 90 days to just the first shot in all of the population. First. Shot.
6/ You're thinking the more shots in the arm, the better! Well, if that guy on Bay Street gets it, and then works at home anyway — that doesn't help the economy open any faster.
Only vaccinating necessary people that are forced to have close contact opens the economy faster.
Only vaccinating necessary people that are forced to have close contact opens the economy faster.
7/ For every 100,000 people that need it, and are displaced, the economy opens up one day later — pushing recovery one day further.
That's about a billion dollars per day, conservatively. Or about $10,000 per displaced shot. Extra shots may throttle by half? So $5k/shot?
That's about a billion dollars per day, conservatively. Or about $10,000 per displaced shot. Extra shots may throttle by half? So $5k/shot?
8/ Once again, this is just napkin math — it might be higher, it might be lower.
Either way, it's pretty fucking pricey when you consider the economic costs of screwing it up.
Either way, it's pretty fucking pricey when you consider the economic costs of screwing it up.
9/ It totally gets worse if you think about it too. The median person pays like, $15k/year in taxes.
Imagine a third of your money going to vaccine the wrong person that year? You could have had a lot of nice shit for that money.
Imagine a third of your money going to vaccine the wrong person that year? You could have had a lot of nice shit for that money.
