In fairness he was right... 15% Unemployment & -31% GDP, Payment Activity was -50% YoY on Cards w T&E down 90% YoY (still bad).. & the Fin System would have imploded 10x worse than 2008 GFC had the Fed + Tsy not stepped in with such force imho. Way Deeper but bigger Bounce Back. https://twitter.com/convertbond/status/1379749323311841287

There’s never been an instance with a global financial system that’s as interlinked with capital & liquidity literally seeing $87 Trillion in GDP grind to a complete halt with unquantifiable Fear (at the time) given zero understanding of when it will restart.. coz of a Pandemic.

At that point Capital doesn’t mean much...it’s almost All Liquidity... so I think what FSOC & Trump/Congress did was learn from 2008 GFC... didn’t take long to pass Emergency Spending + Liquidity...for once did their job & erred on side of aggressive action that was needed imho.

Even Lacy Hunt, Buffett & Howard Marks agree all of it was absolutely the right thing to do at the time.

They passed 1st half of Test with flying colors... they just need to apply the same non political skill to the QE exit.. imho there’s a way to drain by 2022 (window of opportunity) to some hybrid Corridor or QE drain.. within the Context of a huge Rebuild w strong $XLF Capital.

Non Political part is gonna be an All Encompassing solution to reducing Bank Reg Gold Plating.. to Taper or reduce Fed Liabilities or a combo thereof.. coz Regs are the real Fulcrum to get Velocity going on Supply Side.. so Natural Demand Rebound is met at the right price imho.

Fed has this thing tee’d up absolutely perfectly...literally like a 160 yard 7 iron on to the 18th Green..they can still easily flub it like Bernanke did with Tarullo (although he gets mulligan coz building capital) in the 2013 Taper Tantrum...odds r higher for success now imho.