#EUSST contributes to protecting the safety & security of European economies, societies & citizens.

Our Operations Centres are monitoring a potential collision of two large, inactive  #space objects. EU #SST estimates a probability above 1% that they may collide in two days

The two defunct objects are OPS 6182 (1978-042A), a meteorological #satellite and rocket body SL-8 R/B (1981-041B). The network of EU #SST sensors has been requested to observe the objects and provide additional measurements.
Stay tuned here for more updates.
#spacedebris

Update: according to #EUSST's latest estimates using data from its surveillance radars, the close approach between #space objects SL-8 R/B & OPS 6182 expected by tomorrow will have a miss distance under 10m and a Scaled Probability of Collision over 20%! +updates to follow soon

See the below plot for the conjunction plane at Time of Close Approach (TCA) #EUSST #spacedebris #space

Update: #EUSST simulations indicate that the potential collision between the two #space objects would generate more than 4 million fragments. This plot shows the Delta-V distribution of the whole cloud of fragments #spacedebris

More than 400 of the fragments generated by the potential collision would be larger than 20cm. Gabbard diagram shows the extent of orbital regimes that these simulated fragments would reach.

#EUSST continues monitoring the probability of collision. Stay tuned for more updates.

Latest update: according to #EUSST the close approach between #space objects SL-8 R/B and OPS 6182 remains stable in geometry and in Scaled Probability of Collision. Miss distance would be ~21m and Scaled PoC over 20%. This should be the last estimate until TCA.

UPDATE: #EUSST’s network of sensors has only detected a single object or echo at passes over three radars after close approach. Most likely, the collision between SL-8 R/B and OPS 6182 did not take place. We will continue observing the objects to confirm this assessment.

UPDATE: independent confirmation from two additional #EUSST sensors. Both objects have been observed with one single echo.