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Our graphics to illustrate the potential benefits and potential harms of the AstraZeneca vaccine as announced by the MHRA this afternoon.
Benefits accrued over 16 weeks, at three different levels of exposure to the virus.
Benefits accrued over 16 weeks, at three different levels of exposure to the virus.
Avoidance of ICU admission was chosen as a benefit comparator because the potential harms being illustrated are equally severe.
Of course for every one of these potential ICU admissions there are many many people who might have had hospitalisation or long COVID.
Of course for every one of these potential ICU admissions there are many many people who might have had hospitalisation or long COVID.
Also important benefits are to other people - the reduction in the potential to transmit it.
On the other side, the harms illustrated are only the blood clots currently being monitored.
Severe allergic reactions (anaphylaxis) are too rare with the AZ vaccine in the UK to illustrate - that could be because precautions are being taken for those with allergies.
Severe allergic reactions (anaphylaxis) are too rare with the AZ vaccine in the UK to illustrate - that could be because precautions are being taken for those with allergies.
Thank you to @HardingProf and @d_spiegel for the underlying maths, and of course all those who collect and analyse this data @MHRAgovuk
Slides with further explanation and links now on our website at https://wintoncentre.maths.cam.ac.uk/news/communicating-potential-benefits-and-harms-astra-zeneca-covid-19-vaccine/
Here are the same slides in Spanish (with thanks to team member @mc_climent). Note this is still UK data.
