Top 10 Order of Finish prediction, 2021 Masters:

First, since this is on the heels of March Madness, let's start with Last Two Out. (odds to win based on @CircaSports last tweeted markets -- with 12% implied hold!)

Webb Simpson (51-1) - If I pretended his history at ANGC only included the last three years, with 10 out of 12 +SG rounds averaging 1.86 SG:Rd -- and you can create a logical narrative to do that -- he'd slot into the top 5.

Tony Finau (39-1) - If you're reading this thread, there's a decent chance you read my 2019 preview book calling for a Finau win. That ended up being the most exciting gambling sweat of my life. With peak form a bit lower now, he's just outside Top 10 now.

10. Jordan Spieth (11-1) - The odds are insanely short for a player flashing average PGA Tour overall skills entering November's event. Still, his last 24 rds on Tour have been ultra-elite at +2.47 SG/Rd. That's nearly identical to his +2.41 SG/Rd he's avg'd in 28 Masters' rounds

9. Louis Oosthuizen (91-1) - I've written a lot on how much more course history matters at ANGC than any other event. Sports a +1.27 SG:Rd in last 9 trips here (1 MC). His median of +1.60 SG:Rd is even higher suggesting the ability to go low needed to shoot up the leaderboard.

8. Justin Thomas (11.25 -1) - He's never posted +SG:P over the course of an April Masters, and the round by round details are meh to gruesome. On the other hand, he's J.T. -- outstanding T2G work here and the golfer with the highest SG:Rd (+1.78) on Tour since the restart.

7. Daniel Berger (47-1) - He sits 6th on Tour in SG:Rd since the restart, and the five in front of him are Tour elites. Sneaky good Masters history too with 10 out of 12 +SG rounds. There's a path to victory for him.

6. Patrick Cantlay (23-1) - Odds to win are a bit short to my eye, but he comes in 8th in long-term form (since restart) and back-to-back good performances here.

5. Cameron Smith (45-1) - His performance at the November Masters did not come out of nowhere. Has 12 out of 16 +SG rounds of experience here, with an average of 1.06 SG:Rd. But, attention matchup bettors, his median SG:Rd is an eye-popping +2.29. That's a course history I back.

4. Dustin Johnson (9.35 -1) - Only a dip in short-term form keeps him from being higher. It will of course be no surprise if he wins because we all know he's got that game in his bag, along with spectacular history here in his last 5 appearances, '15-'20 (missed '17; stairgate).

3. Matthew Fitzpatrick (57 -1) - He blends Top 15 long-term form with a tantalizing putting history here. I know he's short versus his peers on this list, but he's also flashed excellent SG:App here as well. He's another one with a better median SG:Rd than avg.

2. Xander Schauffele (27 -1) - 4th in SG:Rd on Tour since restart. No difference in form since November either. Plus, two straight excellent showings here with SG components that shine. Odds would certainly be shorter if he'd won since restart, but that means value for us.

1. Jon Rahm (13-1) - Actually has better short-term form (post Nov.) than long which included the Memorial win. Stunningly consistent among his elite peers, and it extends to his 4 Masters appearances. 11 out of 16 +SG rounds, and three of the misses were fractional in nature.