Read on Twitter
Top 10 Order of Finish prediction, 2021 Masters:
First, since this is on the heels of March Madness, let& #39;s start with Last Two Out. (odds to win based on @CircaSports last tweeted markets -- with 12% implied hold!)
First, since this is on the heels of March Madness, let& #39;s start with Last Two Out. (odds to win based on @CircaSports last tweeted markets -- with 12% implied hold!)
Webb Simpson (51-1) - If I pretended his history at ANGC only included the last three years, with 10 out of 12 +SG rounds averaging 1.86 SG:Rd -- and you can create a logical narrative to do that -- he& #39;d slot into the top 5.
Tony Finau (39-1) - If you& #39;re reading this thread, there& #39;s a decent chance you read my 2019 preview book calling for a Finau win. That ended up being the most exciting gambling sweat of my life. With peak form a bit lower now, he& #39;s just outside Top 10 now.
10. Jordan Spieth (11-1) - The odds are insanely short for a player flashing average PGA Tour overall skills entering November& #39;s event. Still, his last 24 rds on Tour have been ultra-elite at +2.47 SG/Rd. That& #39;s nearly identical to his +2.41 SG/Rd he& #39;s avg& #39;d in 28 Masters& #39; rounds
9. Louis Oosthuizen (91-1) - I& #39;ve written a lot on how much more course history matters at ANGC than any other event. Sports a +1.27 SG:Rd in last 9 trips here (1 MC). His median of +1.60 SG:Rd is even higher suggesting the ability to go low needed to shoot up the leaderboard.
8. Justin Thomas (11.25 -1) - He& #39;s never posted +SG:P over the course of an April Masters, and the round by round details are meh to gruesome. On the other hand, he& #39;s J.T. -- outstanding T2G work here and the golfer with the highest SG:Rd (+1.78) on Tour since the restart.
7. Daniel Berger (47-1) - He sits 6th on Tour in SG:Rd since the restart, and the five in front of him are Tour elites. Sneaky good Masters history too with 10 out of 12 +SG rounds. There& #39;s a path to victory for him.
6. Patrick Cantlay (23-1) - Odds to win are a bit short to my eye, but he comes in 8th in long-term form (since restart) and back-to-back good performances here.
5. Cameron Smith (45-1) - His performance at the November Masters did not come out of nowhere. Has 12 out of 16 +SG rounds of experience here, with an average of 1.06 SG:Rd. But, attention matchup bettors, his median SG:Rd is an eye-popping +2.29. That& #39;s a course history I back.
4. Dustin Johnson (9.35 -1) - Only a dip in short-term form keeps him from being higher. It will of course be no surprise if he wins because we all know he& #39;s got that game in his bag, along with spectacular history here in his last 5 appearances, & #39;15-& #39;20 (missed & #39;17; stairgate).
3. Matthew Fitzpatrick (57 -1) - He blends Top 15 long-term form with a tantalizing putting history here. I know he& #39;s short versus his peers on this list, but he& #39;s also flashed excellent SG:App here as well. He& #39;s another one with a better median SG:Rd than avg.
2. Xander Schauffele (27 -1) - 4th in SG:Rd on Tour since restart. No difference in form since November either. Plus, two straight excellent showings here with SG components that shine. Odds would certainly be shorter if he& #39;d won since restart, but that means value for us.
1. Jon Rahm (13-1) - Actually has better short-term form (post Nov.) than long which included the Memorial win. Stunningly consistent among his elite peers, and it extends to his 4 Masters appearances. 11 out of 16 +SG rounds, and three of the misses were fractional in nature.
