https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🚀" title="Rakete" aria-label="Emoji: Rakete"> This is ONLY THE BEGINNING for TOP SHOT https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🚀" title="Rakete" aria-label="Emoji: Rakete">

Top Shot has been in a funk the last month. Let& #39;s talk about marketing https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="📢" title="Lautsprecheranlage" aria-label="Emoji: Lautsprecheranlage">, platform growth https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="📈" title="Tabelle mit Aufwärtstrend" aria-label="Emoji: Tabelle mit Aufwärtstrend">, & the future https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔮" title="Kristallkugel" aria-label="Emoji: Kristallkugel">

A Thread https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⬇️" title="Pfeil nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Pfeil nach unten">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⬇️" title="Pfeil nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Pfeil nach unten">

Point #1: Top Shot is FAR from a mature platform.

Someday (hopefully) TS will have millions of users around the globe https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🌏" title="Asien-Australien auf dem Globus" aria-label="Emoji: Asien-Australien auf dem Globus">

Right now the platform is growing extremely fast (almost too fast) and relies heavily on network effects https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⬇️" title="Pfeil nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Pfeil nach unten">

The flywheel:

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="1⃣" title="Tastenkappe Ziffer 1" aria-label="Emoji: Tastenkappe Ziffer 1"> New users find the platform & sign up
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="2⃣" title="Tastenkappe Ziffer 2" aria-label="Emoji: Tastenkappe Ziffer 2"> They buy a few moments & start collecting
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="3⃣" title="Tastenkappe Ziffer 3" aria-label="Emoji: Tastenkappe Ziffer 3"> They talk about it & interact on social
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="4⃣" title="Tastenkappe Ziffer 4" aria-label="Emoji: Tastenkappe Ziffer 4"> Community builds trust
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="5⃣" title="Tastenkappe Ziffer 5" aria-label="Emoji: Tastenkappe Ziffer 5"> New users find the platform
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="6⃣" title="Tastenkappe Ziffer 6" aria-label="Emoji: Tastenkappe Ziffer 6"> Repeathttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔂" title="Einmalige Wiederholung" aria-label="Emoji: Einmalige Wiederholung">

Marketplace prices rise w/ growth, but the ecosystem is fragile https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⬇️" title="Pfeil nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Pfeil nach unten">

Liquidity is a PRE-REQUISITE to the flywheel& #39;s success.

Both unlimited onboarding AND unlimited offboarding are required for market equilibrium. @rohamg seems to know this.

Contrary to what many on Twitter think, it is NOT in Dapper& #39;s best interest to prevent withdrawals https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⬇️" title="Pfeil nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Pfeil nach unten">

Importance of withdrawals:

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔹" title="Kleine blaue Raute" aria-label="Emoji: Kleine blaue Raute"> Instant withdrawals build trust https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🤝" title="Handschlag" aria-label="Emoji: Handschlag">
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔹" title="Kleine blaue Raute" aria-label="Emoji: Kleine blaue Raute"> Complaints hurt the brand & distract from growth
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔹" title="Kleine blaue Raute" aria-label="Emoji: Kleine blaue Raute"> Fast withdrawals will increase ease of use
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔹" title="Kleine blaue Raute" aria-label="Emoji: Kleine blaue Raute"> Overall, it levels up the user experience https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="😃" title="Lächelndes Gesicht mit geöffnetem Mund" aria-label="Emoji: Lächelndes Gesicht mit geöffnetem Mund">

KYC is growing FAST, but user growth was faster. It& #39;ll catch up

THE BIGGER ISSUE: Unlimited onboarding

Onboarding interruption turns the growth flywheel into a growth Death Spiral https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⬇️" title="Pfeil nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Pfeil nach unten">

Limited onboarding uniquely hurts Top Shot compared to a platform like Robinhood because the assets in the market are TS& #39;s own assets.

Viral growth of the platform will get priced into the market. Shutting off the faucet disrupts that and is almost guaranteed to cause panic.

@dapperlabs needs to be ready to handle A TON of excess capacity on A MOMENT& #39;s notice https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="😳" title="Errötetes Gesicht" aria-label="Emoji: Errötetes Gesicht">

This is impossible to build for in a Series A. However, $300M should help. https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="😁" title="Grinsendes Gesicht mit lächelnden Augen" aria-label="Emoji: Grinsendes Gesicht mit lächelnden Augen">

This $ will also lead to exciting new features & WAY shorter dev cycles https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⬇️" title="Pfeil nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Pfeil nach unten">

We were waiting for Rookie badges FOREVER.

Challenge badges were just dropped randomly https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🛡️" title="Schild" aria-label="Emoji: Schild">

Features will be shipped WAY more quickly in the very near future https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⚡️" title="Hochspannungszeichen" aria-label="Emoji: Hochspannungszeichen">

Shipping quickly will create more social chatter & increase virality too https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="💥" title="Symbol für eine Kollision" aria-label="Emoji: Symbol für eine Kollision">

It& #39;s also great for content creators https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="😂" title="Gesicht mit Freudentränen" aria-label="Emoji: Gesicht mit Freudentränen">

This dovetails nicely with MARKETING https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="📢" title="Lautsprecheranlage" aria-label="Emoji: Lautsprecheranlage">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="📢" title="Lautsprecheranlage" aria-label="Emoji: Lautsprecheranlage">

@Eisenberg43 recently noted they& #39;re not even marketing.

The organic growth is INSANE right now. Like COMPLETELY INSANE https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🚀" title="Rakete" aria-label="Emoji: Rakete">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🚀" title="Rakete" aria-label="Emoji: Rakete">

Signup capacity is a huge bottleneck for marketing. But shortening dev cycles will evenutally resolve this https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="✅" title="Fettes weißes Häkchen" aria-label="Emoji: Fettes weißes Häkchen">

We know Top Shot is turning on the marketing faucet soon, they didn& #39;t hire @dbfeld to sit on his hands https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="😂" title="Gesicht mit Freudentränen" aria-label="Emoji: Gesicht mit Freudentränen">

My guess is they are currently building out the roadmap for a big playoff content push https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👀" title="Augen" aria-label="Emoji: Augen">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👀" title="Augen" aria-label="Emoji: Augen">

I& #39;ve heard people argue "they& #39;ve already tapped out the core user base. Most people are already on". https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="❌" title="Kreuzzeichen" aria-label="Emoji: Kreuzzeichen">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="❌" title="Kreuzzeichen" aria-label="Emoji: Kreuzzeichen">

IMO this is completely wrong. They& #39;ve barely scraped the surface on the potential audience, and the TAM will grow over the next decade https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="📈" title="Tabelle mit Aufwärtstrend" aria-label="Emoji: Tabelle mit Aufwärtstrend">

TONS of untapped potential here https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👊" title="Faust" aria-label="Emoji: Faust">

RISKS & CHALLENGES:

1. STOP BOTS

Not sure how big this issue is, but it needs to be fixed.

It& #39;s bad enough that they stopped gifting completely. Where there& #39;s smoke, there& #39;s fire. Bots/splitting can tank the market.

This is an important fix. Luckily, TS runs on blockchain https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="😂" title="Gesicht mit Freudentränen" aria-label="Emoji: Gesicht mit Freudentränen">

2. BUBBLES

Growing too fast is a risk. You don& #39;t want euphoria blowing up prices if you can help it https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🎢" title="Achterbahn" aria-label="Emoji: Achterbahn">

It& #39;s bad for collectors & attracts negative media https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="❌" title="Kreuzzeichen" aria-label="Emoji: Kreuzzeichen">

How - and should - you stop this?

It& #39;s a tough balance between two luxuries: excess capacity & preventing euphoria https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="😂" title="Gesicht mit Freudentränen" aria-label="Emoji: Gesicht mit Freudentränen">

IMO TS is primed for significant user growth in the next 6 months.

Right now they& #39;re building the team and preparing for scale. All is quiet and prices are still slowly falling...for now.

@threader_app compile