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This is ONLY THE BEGINNING for TOP SHOT Top Shot has been in a funk the last month. Let's talk about marketing
, platform growth 
, & the future 
A Thread
Point #1: Top Shot is FAR from a mature platform.
Someday (hopefully) TS will have millions of users around the globe
Right now the platform is growing extremely fast (almost too fast) and relies heavily on network effects
Someday (hopefully) TS will have millions of users around the globe
Right now the platform is growing extremely fast (almost too fast) and relies heavily on network effects
The flywheel:
New users find the platform & sign up
They buy a few moments & start collecting
They talk about it & interact on social
Community builds trust
New users find the platform
Repeat
Marketplace prices rise w/ growth, but the ecosystem is fragile
New users find the platform & sign up They buy a few moments & start collecting They talk about it & interact on social Community builds trust New users find the platform RepeatMarketplace prices rise w/ growth, but the ecosystem is fragile
Liquidity is a PRE-REQUISITE to the flywheel's success.
Both unlimited onboarding AND unlimited offboarding are required for market equilibrium. @rohamg seems to know this.
Contrary to what many on Twitter think, it is NOT in Dapper's best interest to prevent withdrawals
Both unlimited onboarding AND unlimited offboarding are required for market equilibrium. @rohamg seems to know this.
Contrary to what many on Twitter think, it is NOT in Dapper's best interest to prevent withdrawals
Importance of withdrawals:
Instant withdrawals build trust 
Complaints hurt the brand & distract from growth
Fast withdrawals will increase ease of use
Overall, it levels up the user experience 
KYC is growing FAST, but user growth was faster. It'll catch up
Instant withdrawals build trust Complaints hurt the brand & distract from growth Fast withdrawals will increase ease of use Overall, it levels up the user experience KYC is growing FAST, but user growth was faster. It'll catch up
THE BIGGER ISSUE: Unlimited onboarding
Onboarding interruption turns the growth flywheel into a growth Death Spiral
Onboarding interruption turns the growth flywheel into a growth Death Spiral
Limited onboarding uniquely hurts Top Shot compared to a platform like Robinhood because the assets in the market are TS's own assets.
Viral growth of the platform will get priced into the market. Shutting off the faucet disrupts that and is almost guaranteed to cause panic.
Viral growth of the platform will get priced into the market. Shutting off the faucet disrupts that and is almost guaranteed to cause panic.
@dapperlabs needs to be ready to handle A TON of excess capacity on A MOMENT's notice 
This is impossible to build for in a Series A. However, $300M should help.
This $ will also lead to exciting new features & WAY shorter dev cycles
This is impossible to build for in a Series A. However, $300M should help.
This $ will also lead to exciting new features & WAY shorter dev cycles
We were waiting for Rookie badges FOREVER.
Challenge badges were just dropped randomly
Features will be shipped WAY more quickly in the very near future
Shipping quickly will create more social chatter & increase virality too
It's also great for content creators
Challenge badges were just dropped randomly
Features will be shipped WAY more quickly in the very near future
Shipping quickly will create more social chatter & increase virality too
It's also great for content creators
This dovetails nicely with MARKETING
@Eisenberg43 recently noted they're not even marketing.
The organic growth is INSANE right now. Like COMPLETELY INSANE
Signup capacity is a huge bottleneck for marketing. But shortening dev cycles will evenutally resolve this
@Eisenberg43 recently noted they're not even marketing.
The organic growth is INSANE right now. Like COMPLETELY INSANE
Signup capacity is a huge bottleneck for marketing. But shortening dev cycles will evenutally resolve this
We know Top Shot is turning on the marketing faucet soon, they didn't hire @dbfeld to sit on his hands
My guess is they are currently building out the roadmap for a big playoff content push
My guess is they are currently building out the roadmap for a big playoff content push
I've heard people argue "they've already tapped out the core user base. Most people are already on". 
IMO this is completely wrong. They've barely scraped the surface on the potential audience, and the TAM will grow over the next decade
TONS of untapped potential here
IMO this is completely wrong. They've barely scraped the surface on the potential audience, and the TAM will grow over the next decade
TONS of untapped potential here
RISKS & CHALLENGES:
1. STOP BOTS
Not sure how big this issue is, but it needs to be fixed.
It's bad enough that they stopped gifting completely. Where there's smoke, there's fire. Bots/splitting can tank the market.
This is an important fix. Luckily, TS runs on blockchain
1. STOP BOTS
Not sure how big this issue is, but it needs to be fixed.
It's bad enough that they stopped gifting completely. Where there's smoke, there's fire. Bots/splitting can tank the market.
This is an important fix. Luckily, TS runs on blockchain
2. BUBBLES
Growing too fast is a risk. You don't want euphoria blowing up prices if you can help it
It's bad for collectors & attracts negative media
How - and should - you stop this?
It's a tough balance between two luxuries: excess capacity & preventing euphoria
Growing too fast is a risk. You don't want euphoria blowing up prices if you can help it
It's bad for collectors & attracts negative media
How - and should - you stop this?
It's a tough balance between two luxuries: excess capacity & preventing euphoria
IMO TS is primed for significant user growth in the next 6 months.
Right now they're building the team and preparing for scale. All is quiet and prices are still slowly falling...for now.
Right now they're building the team and preparing for scale. All is quiet and prices are still slowly falling...for now.
@threader_app compile
