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--EXAGGERATED & UNFOUNDED COVID FEARS: A THREAD—
One of the biggest drivers of compliance with Covid measures is FEAR - fear of contagion, disease, death, police, social disapproval. Below, I critically interrogate the rational basis for several socially salient Covid fears.
One of the biggest drivers of compliance with Covid measures is FEAR - fear of contagion, disease, death, police, social disapproval. Below, I critically interrogate the rational basis for several socially salient Covid fears.
1/ “We are all susceptible to this virus – anyone could fall seriously ill or die if exposed.”
The risk of serious illness from Covid-19 varies DRAMATICALLY. Children run virtually no risk; young & healthy adults run VERY low risk; over 60s w/ comorbidity run elevated risks.
The risk of serious illness from Covid-19 varies DRAMATICALLY. Children run virtually no risk; young & healthy adults run VERY low risk; over 60s w/ comorbidity run elevated risks.
2/ “I could pass the virus on to anyone if I let my guard down.”
Several studies suggest that asymptomatic transmission is VERY rare. Based on these findings, IF YOU AREN’T SICK, you are unlikely to transmit SARS-CoV-2.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33315116/ https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19802-w
Several studies suggest that asymptomatic transmission is VERY rare. Based on these findings, IF YOU AREN’T SICK, you are unlikely to transmit SARS-CoV-2.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33315116/ https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19802-w
3/ “If we unmask, infections will take off.”
Evidence on community masking is "limited & inconsistent” (WHO, 1/12/20) (cf. ECDC report, 15/2/20). If, as studies suggest, asymptomatic spread is RARE, the impact of masking is likely to be marginal. Data seem to bear this out.
Evidence on community masking is "limited & inconsistent” (WHO, 1/12/20) (cf. ECDC report, 15/2/20). If, as studies suggest, asymptomatic spread is RARE, the impact of masking is likely to be marginal. Data seem to bear this out.
4/ “If we open up society, disease will sky-rocket.”
Since the risks of Covid-19 are highly concentrated in the elderly & evidence for asymptomatic spread is weak, it’s not surprising that lockdowns aren't correlated with reduced mortality/disease. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(20)30208-X/fulltext
Since the risks of Covid-19 are highly concentrated in the elderly & evidence for asymptomatic spread is weak, it’s not surprising that lockdowns aren't correlated with reduced mortality/disease. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(20)30208-X/fulltext
5/ “Without universal vaccination, it won’t be safe to open up society.”
FALSE. It is well established that most people experience mild or flu-like symptoms when exposed to SARS-Cov-2. Those at serious risk (e.g. over 60s) may benefit from vaccines; most of us do not need them.
FALSE. It is well established that most people experience mild or flu-like symptoms when exposed to SARS-Cov-2. Those at serious risk (e.g. over 60s) may benefit from vaccines; most of us do not need them.
6/ “If someone approaches me unmasked in a supermarket, I am in danger.”
Evidence for protective effects of masks is weak. Sharing a household with a person with symptoms is associated with transmission; casual encounters with healthy individuals - indoors or outdoors - are NOT.
Evidence for protective effects of masks is weak. Sharing a household with a person with symptoms is associated with transmission; casual encounters with healthy individuals - indoors or outdoors - are NOT.
7/ “School openings are risky. We should socially distance &/or mask students.”
FALSE. Schools, at least up to age 16, have been kept open (eg Sweden) throughout the pandemic, w/ no adverse effects for children, while teachers are not at any greater risk than other professions.
FALSE. Schools, at least up to age 16, have been kept open (eg Sweden) throughout the pandemic, w/ no adverse effects for children, while teachers are not at any greater risk than other professions.
8/ “With new variants, it is no longer safe to travel internationally.”
FALSE. The emergence of new variants is NORMAL. Certain variants may be more transmissible but there’s no evidence they’re more virulent, or will overpower existing immunity, whether natural or vaccine-based
FALSE. The emergence of new variants is NORMAL. Certain variants may be more transmissible but there’s no evidence they’re more virulent, or will overpower existing immunity, whether natural or vaccine-based
9/ "I'm afraid to have a beer with friends - I might drive up the R number"
The level of exposure of HIGH RISK individuals is what matters. If you & your friends aren't sick or in a high risk group & don't live w/ or care for vulnerable persons, no need for extra precautions.
The level of exposure of HIGH RISK individuals is what matters. If you & your friends aren't sick or in a high risk group & don't live w/ or care for vulnerable persons, no need for extra precautions.
10/ "I'm afraid if we let in tourists, Covid will get out of control."
Border controls were not recommended by 2019 WHO pandemic guidelines. If you live in a region in which SARS-CoV-2 is ALREADY ENDEMIC (in wide circulation), restricting tourism is unlikely to have much impact.
Border controls were not recommended by 2019 WHO pandemic guidelines. If you live in a region in which SARS-CoV-2 is ALREADY ENDEMIC (in wide circulation), restricting tourism is unlikely to have much impact.
11/ “I need to deep-clean surfaces several times a day, in case they are contaminated with Covid.”
- Surfaces do NOT represent a significant risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Normal hygiene & cleaning are sufficient. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00251-4
- Surfaces do NOT represent a significant risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Normal hygiene & cleaning are sufficient. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00251-4
