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I’ve got some bad news.
Elon Musk is running away with the future.
This isn’t something I enjoy. It makes me deeply uneasy. I don’t think the guy has a great temperament for power, nor do I trust his values.
But my preferences were not consulted on this matter.
Elon Musk is running away with the future.
This isn’t something I enjoy. It makes me deeply uneasy. I don’t think the guy has a great temperament for power, nor do I trust his values.
But my preferences were not consulted on this matter.
TikTok knows I like telecom content.
If some fiber is being spliced by a robot, I am going to watch that shit.
So tonight I fell down the Starlink rabbit hole. There’s a paradigm shift about to happen in telecom and the implications are substantial.
Especially for Elon.
If some fiber is being spliced by a robot, I am going to watch that shit.
So tonight I fell down the Starlink rabbit hole. There’s a paradigm shift about to happen in telecom and the implications are substantial.
Especially for Elon.
Broadband and inequality are tangled together like the worst ethernet rat’s nest you’ve ever seen.
Infrastructure is expensive and America has been avoiding the investments. So you’ve got whole swathes of America where it’s impossible to participate in the knowledge economy.
Infrastructure is expensive and America has been avoiding the investments. So you’ve got whole swathes of America where it’s impossible to participate in the knowledge economy.
Boy, you book the wrong AirBnB, and your ~working trip~ can turn into a surprise vacation.
Intermittent disconnects, slow upstream, inadequate downstream…
You can’t do typical remote work from everywhere in America. But with Starlink, that will change.
Intermittent disconnects, slow upstream, inadequate downstream…
You can’t do typical remote work from everywhere in America. But with Starlink, that will change.
In the beta test, people who were stuck with slow, high-latency satellite service in rural America can trade in for Starlink.
Subject to the geographic restrictions of the existing constellation.
These folks now have… really solid internet.
Subject to the geographic restrictions of the existing constellation.
These folks now have… really solid internet.
We’re talking a reasonable ping, less than 50ms. Over 100mbit down, sometimes double that. 25mbit up.
It’s not perfect. The service still has its rough patches. But it’s already so much better than has ever been available in some places since the dawn of the web
It’s a big deal
It’s not perfect. The service still has its rough patches. But it’s already so much better than has ever been available in some places since the dawn of the web
It’s a big deal
So, Elon’s got an easy $99 from every house in rural America, every month, forever.
States will step in with subsidies, since it will be cheaper than building their own local capacity.
And Elon, meanwhile, will have an orbital money farm. This is the running away bit.
States will step in with subsidies, since it will be cheaper than building their own local capacity.
And Elon, meanwhile, will have an orbital money farm. This is the running away bit.
The way a business works is, you’re rich if you can find a way to turn $1 into any larger multiple, and you can scale it.
The human need for communication is *insatiable*.
If you can find a way to turn rocket launches into communication money, you’re in a unique position.
The human need for communication is *insatiable*.
If you can find a way to turn rocket launches into communication money, you’re in a unique position.
Rocket launches, historically, have been the exclusive domain of the nation state. You needed serious resources to tackle the science, technology and engineering this requires.
But in the billionaire age, wealthy people can horn in on the fun. The moat is still DEEP.
But in the billionaire age, wealthy people can horn in on the fun. The moat is still DEEP.
So, for Elon, and select other entrepreneurs who can figure out a scalable, inexpensive means of reaching orbit…
Space is a playground.
Hence, he can run around setting up a brand new telecom monopoly. Anyone who wants to compete needs their own orbital launch capability.
Space is a playground.
Hence, he can run around setting up a brand new telecom monopoly. Anyone who wants to compete needs their own orbital launch capability.
I’m sure he’ll have company up there soon enough.
But meanwhile, he’s a first mover.
And whatever his fuckery, he’s got the hearts and minds of customers who have been left to rot for DECADES.
You think any of these people will support regulation of the guy who saved them?
But meanwhile, he’s a first mover.
And whatever his fuckery, he’s got the hearts and minds of customers who have been left to rot for DECADES.
You think any of these people will support regulation of the guy who saved them?
The deeds Musk will be known for? Connecting people with family, with economic opportunity, with making the impossible happen.
At a reasonable price.
That is a type of POLITICAL influence he is racking up. Because he got something done for an entirely abandoned constituency.
At a reasonable price.
That is a type of POLITICAL influence he is racking up. Because he got something done for an entirely abandoned constituency.
This is the next frontier of robber barons, in any case.
Leaving them aside, imagine what this all means for the future of work. Of cities. Of the states.
Imagine the diffusion enabled in a territory as big as the United States, if telecom needs are universally addressed.
Leaving them aside, imagine what this all means for the future of work. Of cities. Of the states.
Imagine the diffusion enabled in a territory as big as the United States, if telecom needs are universally addressed.
I could imagine places like Northern New Mexico and Colorado being swamped with weird compounds of knowledge workers, now able to pull in perfect data service wherever they are.
Oh, you’ll see some weird Galt’s Gulch fantasies enacted across the southwest, mark my words.
Oh, you’ll see some weird Galt’s Gulch fantasies enacted across the southwest, mark my words.
You can run wildly profitable software companies with a remote team.
That Pandora’s box is opened. People know now. Not everyone is good at it, and not everything about it is perfect.
But it can work and meanwhile, our culture fetishizes LAND.
Vinegar, meet baking soda.
That Pandora’s box is opened. People know now. Not everyone is good at it, and not everything about it is perfect.
But it can work and meanwhile, our culture fetishizes LAND.
Vinegar, meet baking soda.
This is going to change things. In the telecom sense of change them: deep and wide.
Like the smartphone age.
Like the first broadband age.
Like the age of dialup and the web.
Each was an accelerant and enabler, with consequences both tedious and profound.
Like the smartphone age.
Like the first broadband age.
Like the age of dialup and the web.
Each was an accelerant and enabler, with consequences both tedious and profound.
A telecom paradigm shift confers lucrative outcomes, and often monopolies.
Musk is right there, ready to seize it. Printing money off of communication, giving him a launch pad to the rest of space. Mars, mineral resources in the belt. Who knows what else?
Musk is right there, ready to seize it. Printing money off of communication, giving him a launch pad to the rest of space. Mars, mineral resources in the belt. Who knows what else?
We’re early days yet. Anything can happen. Fumbles, new entrants.
But keep your eyes open. We’re on the cusp of the next cycle.
But keep your eyes open. We’re on the cusp of the next cycle.
One other thing.
Laugh all you want about SpaceX’s mishaps and explosions.
They’re trying to make space as cheap and mechanical as a McDonald’s hamburger. They’ve got all the money they need to keep building them until it works.
Take this threat seriously, all I’m saying.
Laugh all you want about SpaceX’s mishaps and explosions.
They’re trying to make space as cheap and mechanical as a McDonald’s hamburger. They’ve got all the money they need to keep building them until it works.
Take this threat seriously, all I’m saying.
The Army of Musksuckers has already found this thread and they are bellicose! 
If the cult of personality is already this strong, imagine how it goes once he's delivering essential services to people who broadband left behind.
If the cult of personality is already this strong, imagine how it goes once he's delivering essential services to people who broadband left behind.
…Exactly? Fuck that guy, he sucks.
In summary:
This guy is getting rich serving the under-served, so that must absolve him of any responsibility for past bad actions, while making his future ambitions above scrutiny.
That is a weird relationship to have with the rich!
This guy is getting rich serving the under-served, so that must absolve him of any responsibility for past bad actions, while making his future ambitions above scrutiny.
That is a weird relationship to have with the rich!
Folks have such a distressingly bad analysis of power.
The point is that Musk is NOT like every regular person. He's one of the richest dudes alive. He has power over people. When he makes bad decisions, like forcing people to work during a pandemic, there are consequences.
The point is that Musk is NOT like every regular person. He's one of the richest dudes alive. He has power over people. When he makes bad decisions, like forcing people to work during a pandemic, there are consequences.
Though, this one again falls into the "writing fanfic about rich dudes as a way of fantasizing about having their power" category.
The dude isn't humble at all, but these people want to pretend. Maybe it's simpler than power fantasy:
They want to pretend the powerful are good.
The dude isn't humble at all, but these people want to pretend. Maybe it's simpler than power fantasy:
They want to pretend the powerful are good.
As a defense mechanism, this extension of the just world fantasy makes sense.
Who would WANT to live in a world where a guy can be obscenely rich AND a complete shmuck? More comfortable to pretend the wealthy are also agreeable, wise, and even-tempered (even against evidence)
Who would WANT to live in a world where a guy can be obscenely rich AND a complete shmuck? More comfortable to pretend the wealthy are also agreeable, wise, and even-tempered (even against evidence)
