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Ronald Jones Thread
Y1: 9 games, 0 starts 23 Rushes, 44 yards (1.9 ypc), 1 TD, 9 targets
Y2: 16 games, 9 starts, 172 rushes, 724 yards (4.2 ypc), 6 TDs, 40 targets
Y3 14 games, 13 starts, 192 rushes, 978 yards (5.1 ypc), 7 TDs, 42 targets
Y1: 9 games, 0 starts 23 Rushes, 44 yards (1.9 ypc), 1 TD, 9 targets
Y2: 16 games, 9 starts, 172 rushes, 724 yards (4.2 ypc), 6 TDs, 40 targets
Y3 14 games, 13 starts, 192 rushes, 978 yards (5.1 ypc), 7 TDs, 42 targets
Yards Before Contact Per Attempt
Y1: 0.7
Y2: 1.8
Y3: 2.1
Yards After Contact Per Attempt
Y1: 1.2
Y2: 2.4
Y3: 3.0
Fumbles:
Y1: 0 (would be hard to have any with 23 rushes)
Y2: 3
Y3: 2
Weight:
Y1: 206 lbs
Y2: 217 lbs
Y3: 225 lbs
Y1: 0.7
Y2: 1.8
Y3: 2.1
Yards After Contact Per Attempt
Y1: 1.2
Y2: 2.4
Y3: 3.0
Fumbles:
Y1: 0 (would be hard to have any with 23 rushes)
Y2: 3
Y3: 2
Weight:
Y1: 206 lbs
Y2: 217 lbs
Y3: 225 lbs
Ronald Jones is a guy who often is unnecessarily disrespected. Why might this be? Well, RoJo, a former 2nd round pick out of USC, did diddly-squat in his rookie year. As we all know, the fantasy community, as a whole, are (a) impatient and (b) reactionary.
After his 1st year out, many were out completely, labeling RoJo as a jag - a label that is not shed easily.
Another reason may be his usage. Over the course of his career, RoJo has been an unreliable fantasy asset to slot into your lineup. While he may have a high end RB1 week from time to time, he might also put up a goose egg. RoJo’s production has been an unpredictable yo-yo.
One last one could be his passing game, which does have a few flags. RoJo hasn’t shown the best hands or route running ability. He’s also been less than stellar as a pass blocker over the duration of his career.
With all that being said, I will now make the case for Ronald Jones moving forward and argue against the above criticisms.
1) Ronald Jones Y1 bust should be forgotten.
There is no way around the fact that Ronald Jones produced absolutely nothing in his rookie year.
1) Ronald Jones Y1 bust should be forgotten.
There is no way around the fact that Ronald Jones produced absolutely nothing in his rookie year.
But as noted above, Ronald Jones was not necessarily ready to plan in the NFL. He was nearly 20 pounds lighter when entering the league and was generally viewed as a raw prospect.
While disappointing, it’s not uncommon for rookies to get little playing time, or sit out completely. Especially when a rookie also has to battle injuries - which RoJo did.
He blew out his hamstring running the 40 at the combine, and suffered a similar injury during the year.
He blew out his hamstring running the 40 at the combine, and suffered a similar injury during the year.
A hamstring injury is a funky one, and can linger for quite a while. It also could hinder a player upon return, given it’s natural effect on a player’s ability to workout their legs with the injury. For a running back, that’s particularly impactful.
Fortunately, for dynasty age optics, RoJo’s missed rookie year came at the youthful age of 21. In his 2nd year, he was still younger than some rookie RBs. For all intensive purposes, Ronald Jones was a rookie in 2019.
724 rushing yards, 300 receiving yards, a 1000 yard season from a 22 year old getting their first NFL touches is nothing to scoff at. His efficiency wasn’t elite, but it was solid - around the same efficiency as Cam Akers this year.
His second year, he got bigger, he got stronger. He maintained his speed, but his vision was clearly better, especially at the line (his 2nd level has always been good).
As you can see above, RoJo had a Chubb like 5+ ypc - putting up 250 more rushing yards than his prior season, with only 20 more attempts.
RoJo’s put up over 1100 yards this year. He wasn’t involved as much as a receiver, but he notably improved quite a bit as a pass blocker.
RoJo’s put up over 1100 yards this year. He wasn’t involved as much as a receiver, but he notably improved quite a bit as a pass blocker.
But 1100 yards on 13 starts from a 23 year old 2nd year player (3rd year in the league, 2nd playing in the league) is pretty impressive - especially with RoJo’s efficiency numbers.
He also took care of the ball better. Part of that was a conscious effort, the other appeared to have something to do with his improved strength and size.
It is unquestionable that Ronald Jones’ trajectory has continuously been up, and it’s a pretty steep trajectory.
It is unquestionable that Ronald Jones’ trajectory has continuously been up, and it’s a pretty steep trajectory.
2) Usage
Ronald Jones has been a committee back. Leonard Fournette is in town, and last year, that impacted RoJo in the passing game. This is all true.
Leonard Fournette is in town, but... Fournette is also a bad running back who’s name somehow floats on prior draft capital.
Ronald Jones has been a committee back. Leonard Fournette is in town, and last year, that impacted RoJo in the passing game. This is all true.
Leonard Fournette is in town, but... Fournette is also a bad running back who’s name somehow floats on prior draft capital.
YPC is a bad stat, but with a consistent trend and a certain extremity to the numbers - some things can just be obvious.
Fournette Y/A:
Y1) 3.9
Y2) 3.3
Y3) 4.3
Y4) 3.8
That obviously isn’t good.
Fournette Y/A:
Y1) 3.9
Y2) 3.3
Y3) 4.3
Y4) 3.8
That obviously isn’t good.
But with volume, comes yards, and Fournette did have volume, and did have yards - 4000+ of them.
He’s a 26 year old back, with mileage, and not a lot of success in his career.
He’s being paid $4m on a 1 year. That is backup money.
He’s a 26 year old back, with mileage, and not a lot of success in his career.
He’s being paid $4m on a 1 year. That is backup money.
Most believe Fournette’s biggest impact on RoJo will be in the passing game. This is probably true - but the extent is likely overblown.
Let’s first compare the players.
Ronald Jones receiving yards in his 22 and 23 year old seasons
22) 308
23) 165
Leonard Fournette receiving yards in his 22 and 23 year old seasons
22) 302
23) 185
Not so different...
Of course, Fournette put up 522 rec yds at 24.
Ronald Jones receiving yards in his 22 and 23 year old seasons
22) 308
23) 165
Leonard Fournette receiving yards in his 22 and 23 year old seasons
22) 302
23) 185
Not so different...
Of course, Fournette put up 522 rec yds at 24.
But he hasn’t come close to that number since.
Interestingly, despite RoJo’s overall drop off in receiving yards from Y1 to Y2, he actually had more targets and only 2 less receptions.
So it doesn’t seem like Fournette reduced RoJo’s passing work, but he may have capped it.
Interestingly, despite RoJo’s overall drop off in receiving yards from Y1 to Y2, he actually had more targets and only 2 less receptions.
So it doesn’t seem like Fournette reduced RoJo’s passing work, but he may have capped it.
But it is apparent that RoJo’s drop off in passing production stemmed from a drop-off in efficiency instead of a reduced role from the addition of Fournette.
If I were a betting man, I would take the younger, more talented back, who’s demonstrated consistent improvement, who the organization invested top end draft capital into, who’s faster, more efficient, and just as strong if not stronger everyday over...
the old, inefficient, slow, aging RB with a good amount of mileage on their legs.
Especially when the financial motivation for making that player “make their contract worth it” is insignificant. $4m will not prevent anyone from getting their touches.
Especially when the financial motivation for making that player “make their contract worth it” is insignificant. $4m will not prevent anyone from getting their touches.
Tampa didn’t need to play RoJo every down. That likely wouldn’t be good for them or RoJo’s development. But RoJo was and may still be developing. As noted at the outset, he was a raw prospect coming in.
But he’s gotten more work every year and he’s gotten significantly better every year. He has the athleticism to be a force. If he can take a step forward as a receiver (he already has as a pass blocker) there would no reason that he shouldn’t have RB1 upside.
He’s going to be 24, just entering his prime. His athleticism is tantalizing and Tom Brady, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Rob Gronkowski will be getting the ball into the redzone often.
So to sum up the pros
-Young (24 - 3rd year playing)
-Improvements to Size + Strength
-Improvements w/ vision
-Improvements as a pass blocker
-Improvements w/ ball security
-Consistently increasing efficiency
-Consistently increasing production
-Maintained speed and burst
-Young (24 - 3rd year playing)
-Improvements to Size + Strength
-Improvements w/ vision
-Improvements as a pass blocker
-Improvements w/ ball security
-Consistently increasing efficiency
-Consistently increasing production
-Maintained speed and burst
-backup is mediocre at best
-backup isn’t paid a significant amount
-offense scores a lot
The cons - we haven’t seen the volume yet.
-backup isn’t paid a significant amount
-offense scores a lot
The cons - we haven’t seen the volume yet.
But remember, Ronald Jones is young - he’s only 7 months older than NaJee Harris.
And if acquiring him, he is dirt cheap. He can likely be had for a mid 2nd round pick (think Kenny Gainwell).
And if acquiring him, he is dirt cheap. He can likely be had for a mid 2nd round pick (think Kenny Gainwell).
I recently traded a 23 1st and 3rd (futures are worth less, and they are 2 years out) for RoJo and Mooney.
I have a 2.3 evaluation on Mooney (i’m high in him), so I thought the deal was a slam dunk.
I have a 2.3 evaluation on Mooney (i’m high in him), so I thought the deal was a slam dunk.
Twitter gave me only 40% support, which likely emphasizes how down people are on RoJo.
But the price i’m paying is a price below RoJo’s floor.
As a 24 year old, he’s one of the safer bets to be a RB2. With his development, athleticism, he has at worst, high end 2 upside.
But the price i’m paying is a price below RoJo’s floor.
As a 24 year old, he’s one of the safer bets to be a RB2. With his development, athleticism, he has at worst, high end 2 upside.
I believe with some more improvement, and a natural increase in workload as he enters his prime, he could have low end to mid RB1 upside.
He’s efficient, with volume he could put up a lot of yards. With about 30 receptions in back to back years, it’s not unimaginable that he hits 49.
6 TDs followed by 7. With more work, that could easily go up.
6 TDs followed by 7. With more work, that could easily go up.
And if not. 1000-1200 yards, 6 TDs, 30 receptions. Boom, bust. 24 year old.
That’s more valuable than people think. That should be considered a “major hit” for a mid 2nd.
My eval recommendation: To take on some risk, but have a safe floor and good upside, up to a late 1st.
That’s more valuable than people think. That should be considered a “major hit” for a mid 2nd.
My eval recommendation: To take on some risk, but have a safe floor and good upside, up to a late 1st.
At worst, you get mid 2nd value. At best, he more than doubles his value.
Likely to have either a slight improvement or regression to mid-late 1 value or late 2 value after this year.
Likely to have either a slight improvement or regression to mid-late 1 value or late 2 value after this year.
In my humble opinion, Ronald Jones has very low risk, with a potentially extraordinarily high reward.
Buy Ronald Jones
Buy Ronald Jones
