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In preprint w/ @KateGrabowski @khgrantz @andrewazman @CJEMetcalf @Lizstuartdc we look at #COVID-19 risk to household members from in-person schooling. A summary follows. Caution: this work has not yet been peer reviewed (1/8) https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.27.21252597v1">https://www.medrxiv.org/content/1...
This work uses data from @CmuDelphi COVID-19 Symptom Survey https://delphi.cmu.edu/covidcast/survey-results/?date=20210221.">https://delphi.cmu.edu/covidcast... Based on responses throughout the country (A) we see huge differences frequency of in-person schooling (B), the amount full time (C) and the number of mitigation measures reported (D) (2/8)
After adjustment for reported case rates and other covariates we find a significant association between living w/ a child in inperson school and reporting #COVID-19 related. Risk increases w/ grade. We look at two measures of recent symptoms and +COVID test in last 14 days (3/8)
Odds of #COVID-19 outcomes decrease by ~8% w/ each mitigation measure. Symptom screening, teacher masking, and closing extracurriculars stand out Some that look less effective are implemented only with a lot of other stuff (possible saturation effects) (4/8)
When we stratify by number reported, it looks like ~7 school-based mitigation measures is enough to make household member risk the same as if they were living with kids not in in-person schooling. A lot probably depends on how well these are implemented. (5/8)
We couldn& #39;t drill in as much on teachers, but we did find that Pre K-12 teachers who reported "working for pay" outside home had an increase risk of #COVID-19 outcomes. The amount of this increase was similar to office workers. (Not sure what is up w/ food service folks) (6/8)
The type of survey and the topic raises lots of concerns about potential confounding and biases. We can& #39;t rule those out, but when we divided up respondents by attack rate (A), county urbanization (B) and propensity for in person schooling (C), associations hold. (7/8)
Overall, in-person schooling seems to be associated with #COVID-19 risk to household members, but this risk can be controlled by in-school mitigation measures. A lot still remains unknown, hopefully this study of ~600k people helps folks thinking about this thorny issue. (8/8)
