For the 56 million people like me who are last in line for the vaccine rollout, you are probably wondering when vaccines will be available for the general public. Good news! I have done the number crunching, and I am near certain it will be by mid-April (1/16)

There are many factors in answering this question, but the premise is simple: eligibility will be expanded to the public when the demand of eligible people is lower than supply. So when will we reach that point? (2/16)

First, we have to look at priority phases. While not all states follow ACIP guidelines exactly, most will still go through this population before moving on to remaining people. (3/16)

Population of eligible (16+) people in US is approximately 260 million, which leaves 56 million not in phases 1a-1c. Most states have already announced when they will be moving through these phases, so I will focus on these final 56 mil. (4/16)

However, not every person in these phases wants to get vaccinated. Hesitancy is improving, but is still a real force which will speed up vaccinations for those of us that want the vaccine. Recent @YouGov
poll:

Already received: 13%
Yes: 37%
Maybe: 24%
No: 25%

(5/16)

This also varies considerably by political leaning, w/ only 6% "no" among Biden supporters, 37% among Trump supporters. However, since most states only have 10-20 pt diff, it does not change numbers significantly on state-wide level, so I will not include it in my analysis (6/16)

As a whole, if we take the 200 million in 1a-1c, we can assume we will reach the point of supply == demand once 39-58% of eligible population has gotten vaccinated (depending on how many people move from "maybe" to "yes") (7/16)

The final variable is rollout. This is most difficult to track, as it includes production from 3 companies, distribution, and administration. By looking at CDC allocation data, I figured out that applying a 2nd dose lag let me perfectly model vaccine administration. (8/16)

Vaccines are first allocated for the following week, then 1st doses are shipped, and states administer the batch within the next week. 2nd doses are shipped 2 weeks after allocation for Pfizer, and 3 weeks for Moderna. (9/16)

Using this, I found that supply has been the primary constraint since 4-6 weeks after vaccination started, not state differences in administration. Starting February, notice how CDC numbers perfectly match with # 1st doses allocated (10/16)

Knowing this, we can accurately model vaccine rollout with estimates given by Pfizer, Moderna, JnJ in recent hearing (11/16)

As of 3/1: 65 mil Moderna, 50 mil Pfizer delivered

Projected timeline:

Moderna: 100m total by end of March, another 100m by end of May, 40m/month starting April

JnJ: 20m by end of March, 100m by mid-year

Pfizer: 120m total by end of March, additional 80m by end of May
(12/16)

Note: Pfizer's promise if 120m is absolutely insane if they mean it, as they have only delivered 50m in the first three months. It would require 17m/wk, compared to 5m/wk now. They only promised 13m/wk by Mid-March, so I project the 120m is an overestimate.

(13/16)

Using the projections of the three companies (and lower Pfizer estimate), I estimate by the first week of April, 55% of eligible recipients will get their first dose. This lines up with when supply == demand of phases 1a-1c. Timelines with and w/o Pfizer correction (14/16):

When doses are piling up on shelves, governments will need to open up eligibility to the final 50m, and this is when I expect people like me to get their vaccine appointments. (15/16)

This is rough, and numbers will change. Production might be delayed, polls aren't exact, and numbers will vary by state. However, I am confident that my projections will be close to accurate, and hope this gives people hope and optimism! (16/16)

Edit: I made a slight mistake and double counted allocations for the week of 3/1. Here are the updated timeline projections. Removing the double count pushes back the timeline a couple days, but does not change much overall. (17/16)

Edit 2: One important caveat is that I don't consider constraints in administration. Given the sudden massive increase in doses, I would be surprised if states are instantly able to handle them all. OTOH, Bigger cities and states that have planned ahead will likely handle it fine

Edit 3: Fixed cumulative doses allocated row (does not change % numbers)

3/9 Update: I estimated 66m 1st doses by the end of the 3/1 week. We are at 61m, BUT most JnJ doses have not been reported yet (300k/3m), and data lag means 3/5-3/8 data is still incomplete. 66m is likely an UNDERestimate. Will continue to update this thread

Allocations for the week of 3/8 were lower than I expected. However, with this announcement, it seems likely Pfizer will pull through on their 120m promise. Turns out I missed the federal pharmacy program, which has delivered around 1m/wk since early Feb. https://twitter.com/KateSullivanDC/status/1369360256933969923