This will be an inside-baseball mini-rant https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🧵" title="Thread" aria-label="Emoji: Thread"> about interpretations of trends in youth cigarette smoking in the US. Not a big deal, but you might find it interesting.

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First the good news that youth smoking is at historic lows. Per the 2019 YRBS only 8.8% of high school students have smoked in the past 30 days. Smoking may literally disappear.

That is Tony the Tiger Grrrrrreat!

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Now I& #39;ve heard some discussion at #SRNT2021 and at other recent meetings that these declines in youth smoking since their mid90s peak were expected, pre-ordained--almost destiny.

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I believe that is a creative retelling; here& #39;s why:

In 2009, gov& #39;t experts set the #HealthyPeople 2020 objectives and targeted 16% for HS smoking. These are pros with all of the best data, and they try to balance aspiration and reality.

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The rub is that 16% was *also* the HP2010 goal set in 1999. So after a decade, and with an abiding desire to improve things, the experts couldn& #39;t justify forecasting even a 1% point drop for 2020.

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For important whys/whats go to rockstars ( @ArielleSelya @CrisDelnevo @mikepesko @jamie_tam @DrSarahEJackson) but present this argument to those who would have you believe that 8.8% was foreseeable (or unforeseeable--see "In the Loop" if you haven& #39;t!)

6/6 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQrqMkCuHqA">https://www.youtube.com/watch...