I hadn't realized that the 2020 Chinese government's statistical yearbook is out. The new data makes the case for extreme sterilization even stronger.

The birth rate in Xinjiang was 15.88% in 2017, 10.69% in 2018, and only 8.14% in 2019. This is a nearly 50% drop in two years..

...The death rate has stayed basically stable, going from 4.48% -> 4.56% -> 4.45%, so I doubt its a result of higher development as tankies claim. The natural growth in 2019 was only 3.69%, down from 11.40% in 2017. This extreme drop in births cant be explained naturally...

...The almost 50% drop in birth rates in just two years isn't seen anywhere else in China, even Tibet which in 2017 had a higher birthrate than Xinjiang. Also, the birth rate in Xinjiang actually rose from 2016 to 2017, so this isn't a long term trend. Something changed in 2018..

...right around when the forced sterilizations supposedly started. I'm trying to get my hands on the 2019 IUD data, but in 2018, Xinjiang had a massively disproportionate amount of IUDs placed. Many times more than anywhere else per capita.

After Iraq, Libya, etc, I'm extremely skeptical of corporate media or US government reports and allegations of China. That's why I did my own research with the Chinese government's official numbers. The numbers paint a pretty concerning picture.

UPDATE: I found more data from the official Chinese gov. Xinjiang's minority population declined from 16,544,800 in 2017, to 14,977,200 in 2018, to 14,899,400. As a %, it dropped from 67.68% to 60.22% (!) to 59.05%. The Han population on the other hand increased both years.

combine the birth rate data, minority vs Han population data, and IUD data, I think what's going on is pretty unmistakable.