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"Spend all your mana if possible" is the no. 1 limited heuristic. Those raised on @lsv and @Marshall_LR heard it countless times. Thanks to play data from @17lands we can finally show just how important is it to build and play your deck with maximising mana use in your mind 1/x
This data is unique (for now at least). Most data we described before related to deck builds, draft portion. This is based on playing data. The graph shows a link between amount of mana spent during the game and win rate. And data couldn't be clearer. The more mana you spend 2/x
the more likely you are to win. This is a lesson not only in game play but also deck building. Shows how important it is to have ways of spending mana on the curve and making sure your deck doesn't run out of steam. Example: if you spent 17 mana by the end of turn 6 3/x
You have 60% to win this game. If on your turn 7 you have nothing to do, and still spent 17 mana till the end of turn 7, you are 45% likely to win this game (mind this is a simplification, it would need a bit more data to investigate this specific scenario). 4/x
The trend of spending mana is really impressive, and definitely significant. And opens a new chapter for @17lands : analyses of game play data. All thanks to tireless work from @maxwindiff and the rest of the team.
And what better way to start than confirming a heuristic? 5/5
And what better way to start than confirming a heuristic? 5/5
A small methods addendum - data based on 50000+ games, only took data points with 300+ games in it, to avoid small sample size outliers, turn = turn cycle, so both your and opps turns. Cumulative mana is mana spent from the beginning of the game till the end of turn cycle X.
