"Spend all your mana if possible" is the no. 1 limited heuristic. Those raised on @lsv and @Marshall_LR heard it countless times. Thanks to play data from @17lands we can finally show just how important is it to build and play your deck with maximising mana use in your mind 1/x
This data is unique (for now at least). Most data we described before related to deck builds, draft portion. This is based on playing data. The graph shows a link between amount of mana spent during the game and win rate. And data couldn& #39;t be clearer. The more mana you spend 2/x
the more likely you are to win. This is a lesson not only in game play but also deck building. Shows how important it is to have ways of spending mana on the curve and making sure your deck doesn& #39;t run out of steam. Example: if you spent 17 mana by the end of turn 6 3/x
You have 60% to win this game. If on your turn 7 you have nothing to do, and still spent 17 mana till the end of turn 7, you are 45% likely to win this game (mind this is a simplification, it would need a bit more data to investigate this specific scenario). 4/x
The trend of spending mana is really impressive, and definitely significant. And opens a new chapter for @17lands : analyses of game play data. All thanks to tireless work from @maxwindiff and the rest of the team.
And what better way to start than confirming a heuristic? 5/5
A small methods addendum - data based on 50000+ games, only took data points with 300+ games in it, to avoid small sample size outliers, turn = turn cycle, so both your and opps turns. Cumulative mana is mana spent from the beginning of the game till the end of turn cycle X.
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