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Recently, the UK recorded air pollution as a cause of death for the 1st time: 9yr old Ella Kissi-Debrah lived in Lewisham, London, & officially died from acute respiratory failure, severe asthma, & air pollution.
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https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🧵" title="Thread" aria-label="Emoji: Thread">on air pollution & why it matters: https://www.ft.com/content/148ed4f4-a4b6-48d4-8834-08aa248dcb0f">https://www.ft.com/content/1...
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First: we already know that air pollution is dangerous: the WHO estimates that it kills 4 to 7 million *each year*. But recent research has been showing just how dangerous & pernicious it is-and how the effects can go far beyond respiratory conditions... https://www.who.int/news-room/air-pollution">https://www.who.int/news-room...
It& #39;s bad for the economy: a study used satellites to measure impact of air poll on economic activity. A 1μg/m3 increase (0.1 of mean) in PM2.5 (particular matter of diameter <2.5µm) caused 0.8% fall in real GDP via https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⬇️" title="Pfeil nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Pfeil nach unten"> labour productivity & https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⬆️" title="Pfeil nach oben" aria-label="Emoji: Pfeil nach oben"> absenteeism.
http://www.oecd.org/officialdocuments/publicdisplaydocumentpdf/?cote=ECO/WKP(2019)54&docLanguage=En">https://www.oecd.org/officiald...
http://www.oecd.org/officialdocuments/publicdisplaydocumentpdf/?cote=ECO/WKP(2019)54&docLanguage=En">https://www.oecd.org/officiald...
labour productivity & https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⬆️" title="Pfeil nach oben" aria-label="Emoji: Pfeil nach oben"> absenteeism. https://www.oecd.org/officiald..." title="It& #39;s bad for the economy: a study used satellites to measure impact of air poll on economic activity. A 1μg/m3 increase (0.1 of mean) in PM2.5 (particular matter of diameter <2.5µm) caused 0.8% fall in real GDP via https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⬇️" title="Pfeil nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Pfeil nach unten"> labour productivity & https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⬆️" title="Pfeil nach oben" aria-label="Emoji: Pfeil nach oben"> absenteeism. https://www.oecd.org/officiald..." class="img-responsive" style="max-width:100%;"/>
Bad for babies: in her job market paper, @NannaFukushima finds that the reduction in air pollution between 1957 & 1973 due to the UK& #39;s Clean Air Act can account for *70% of the decline in infant mortality* over that period.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/isrh6o5jvjms9z1/NF_JMP.pdf?dl=0">https://www.dropbox.com/s/isrh6o5...
https://www.dropbox.com/s/isrh6o5jvjms9z1/NF_JMP.pdf?dl=0">https://www.dropbox.com/s/isrh6o5...
Air pollution is bad for your brain too: in chess, an increase in PM2.5 of 10µg/m3 raises the chance of an error by 1.5pp, & increases the magnitude of the errors by 9.4%--and these results are worse under time pressure.
http://conference.iza.org/conference_files/environ_2019/palacios_j24419.pdf">https://conference.iza.org/conferenc...
http://conference.iza.org/conference_files/environ_2019/palacios_j24419.pdf">https://conference.iza.org/conferenc...
Bad behaviour: attending a school downwind of a highway (=> greater air poll.) associated w/ 0.04 of a std dev in decreased test scores, *4.1pp increase in behavioural incidents*, & a 0.5pp increase in rate of absences compared to attending upwind schools.
https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w25489/w25489.pdf">https://www.nber.org/system/fi...
https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w25489/w25489.pdf">https://www.nber.org/system/fi...
Bad for discourse: Heyes, @riversNic, and Schaufele find that if the same (Canadian) politicians give a speech on a polluted day, with PM concentration exceeding 15µg/m3, there is a 2.3% reduction in the quality of the speech. (Sadly no Canadian MP gif!)
https://muse.jhu.edu/article/721064/pdf">https://muse.jhu.edu/article/7...
https://muse.jhu.edu/article/721064/pdf">https://muse.jhu.edu/article/7...
Bad for aging: study of ~20k US women aged 70 to 81 found high levels of long-term PM exposure were associated w/ faster cognitive decline: the https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⬇️" title="Pfeil nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Pfeil nach unten"> in cognitive ability for every extra 10μg/m3 was equivalent to aging by approximately *2 years* ( @EpiDancer) https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3622279/">https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/artic...
It& #39;s worse than just cognitive decline: leveraging within- & between-county quasi-random variation, a 1μg/m3 increase in decadal PM2.5 increases the probability of a dementia diagnosis by 1.68pp according to this NBER working paper https://www.nber.org/papers/w24970 ">https://www.nber.org/papers/w2... by @ketchman et al.
Bad for bumps: Vehicle traffic is a big contributor to air pollution. But air pollution affects drivers! Lutz Sager finds increase of 0.3–0.6% in # of vehicles involved in accidents per day for each additional 1μg/m3 of PM2.5 using UK data from 2009--2014.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0095069618301220">https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a...
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0095069618301220">https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a...
But all PM is bad for health: this Nature Sustainability paper uses measurements of Saharan dust to show that a 10μg/m3 increase in annual mean PM2.5 causes a *24% increase* in infant mortality across Sub-Saharan Africa.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-020-0562-1">https://www.nature.com/articles/...
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-020-0562-1">https://www.nature.com/articles/...
A lot of these papers talk about PM2.5 and, by this stage, you& #39;re probably wondering what it is and how big a micron (1μm) is. The EPA has the handy diagram below. The WHO recommend keeping PM2.5 below 10μg/m3. The message is: keep PM levels in check.
https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/ambient-(outdoor)-air-quality-and-health">https://www.who.int/news-room...
https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/ambient-(outdoor)-air-quality-and-health">https://www.who.int/news-room...
Okay, back to the UK: let& #39;s look at some data on PM2.5 for 2010-2019. *Caveat:* some local authorities changed names/structure over that period, and I have excluded them. Data are from DEFRA and are population-weighted annual means: https://uk-air.defra.gov.uk/data/pcm-data ">https://uk-air.defra.gov.uk/data/pcm-...
In the UK, anthropogenic PM2.5 has *slightly* fallen since 2010 (but it& #39;s still far higher than the background level we& #39;d have without human sources). However, most regions are below the WHO guideline.
Looking at the mean concentration by local authority for 2010-2019, we can see that the worst affected local authorities in each country are in built-up areas. London has a string of authorities with >10mg/m3
Pre-coronavirus, I worked in the UK& #39;s worst PM2.5 hotspot most dayshttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="😞" title="Enttäuschtes Gesicht" aria-label="Emoji: Enttäuschtes Gesicht">
Pre-coronavirus, I worked in the UK& #39;s worst PM2.5 hotspot most days
" title="Looking at the mean concentration by local authority for 2010-2019, we can see that the worst affected local authorities in each country are in built-up areas. London has a string of authorities with >10mg/m3Pre-coronavirus, I worked in the UK& #39;s worst PM2.5 hotspot most days https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="😞" title="Enttäuschtes Gesicht" aria-label="Emoji: Enttäuschtes Gesicht">" class="img-responsive" style="max-width:100%;"/>
Where is the PM2.5 coming from (for the UK)? Analysis by DEFRA suggests domestic combustion (44%), commercial combustion (29%), & road transport (11%; though not all from exhaust fumes, a lot is from tyres and roads). https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/emissions-of-air-pollutants/emissions-of-air-pollutants-in-the-uk-1970-to-2018-particulate-matter-pm10-and-pm25">https://www.gov.uk/governmen...
Progress is definitely being made (see this recent report: https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/air_pollution_monitoring_data_in_london_2016_to_2020_feb2020.pdf)">https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/def... but even in the UK we need to reduce it more: for both health and wealth!
What& #39;s the long-term solution? Whichever way you cut it, electrification using clean energy sources is needed, and on a huge scale. Thankfully the grid is already using fewer fuels that are burned; and less burning = less PM2.5. But we& #39;re going to need a *lot* more electricity...
Renewables+fission are part of the solution, especially as solar & wind prices have absolutely plummeted. But we& #39;ll probably need *even more* than they can feasibly provide given economics, politics, and social factors.
One very ambitious & exciting additional solution is #nuclearfusion - so exciting that I& #39;m writing a book about it! #TheStarBuilders tells the story of attempts to turn the Sun& #39;s power source into Earth& #39;s power source (with ~0 PM2.5)! Find out more here: https://twitter.com/arthurturrell/status/1328030268964417537?s=20">https://twitter.com/arthurtur...
That& #39;s all folks, thanks for reading this thread. Did I miss any interesting recent research on air pollution and the effects of PM2.5? Reply and let me know!
