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My favourite framework for decision-making when it comes to innovation is to listen to âexpertsâ and do exactly the opposite of what they are saying.
I double down on this every time the expert is a dude past his 60s wearing a suit and being interviewed on TV. (short thread)
I double down on this every time the expert is a dude past his 60s wearing a suit and being interviewed on TV. (short thread)
Will this work every time? No. But i can guarantee it will work more often than it will fail.
Every innovation that had a lasting impact on the world has been some form or fundamental challange to the status quo.
When people get exposed to it they start wondering what it is and how to make sense of it.
In moments like this, they turn to âexpertsâ.
When people get exposed to it they start wondering what it is and how to make sense of it.
In moments like this, they turn to âexpertsâ.
Not surpisingly, the âexpertsâ ARE the status quo and, by extension, directly threathened by the said innovation.
Because of that, they will take a conservative position and will point out all the ways in which said innovation will fail.
Because of that, they will take a conservative position and will point out all the ways in which said innovation will fail.
I am pretty sure the guy with the wheel was laughed out of the cave by the tribeâs experts in moving things by brute force.
When the printing press was invented, the âexpertsâ explained how the unwashed, illiterate masses donât have much use in reading, nor much to read anyway
When the printing press was invented, the âexpertsâ explained how the unwashed, illiterate masses donât have much use in reading, nor much to read anyway
The early days of the internet had their share of experts explaining all the ways in which a world-wide computer network is useless. People like this guy: https://www.newsweek.com/clifford-stoll-why-web-wont-be-nirvana-185306
To benefit early, you have to act quickly. I get exposed to new ideas and innovation every day. As much as I would like to, it is impossible to dive into every new idea that I come across. So I need some sort of shortcut to decision-making, that will help me act fast and move on
I tried to follow âinfluencersâ but that is a realy bad heuristic.
I tried to refer back to some âfundamentalsâ but âfundamentalsâ are relative.
Eventually I settled on a hack that has so far never failed me:
*I always bet against the experts in suits*.
I tried to refer back to some âfundamentalsâ but âfundamentalsâ are relative.
Eventually I settled on a hack that has so far never failed me:
*I always bet against the experts in suits*.
(Important detail: I am writing this on a day when Bitcoinâs price in US Dollar is at the all time high of $22,800. Cheers to everyone else has been betting against the experts in suits). https://circo.io/decision-making-framework-ignore-the-experts/
This thread aged well 
