why i'm bullish on $XVG - a thread

(note, all based on technicals. you can discount this chart because of fundamentals, but in crypto, at a certain point fundamentals can be so bad that they turn good. being right is more important than being smart and this market is stupid)

when I look at $XVG, I see two things:

1: a 40x pump in two weeks following a binance listing

2: three years of pain, suffering and misery

the greatest achievement of $XVG was its notorious pornhub partnership. a fitting pair, both acknowledging the importance of the pump.

now with shitcoins that have been bleeding for years, we have to ask ourselves three very important questions.

1 - is this coin dead?
2 - is this coin still going down?
3 - how do we possibly time a pump and dump?

1 - is this coin dead?

the answer is no. In fact, most shitcoins aren't dead. Their teams are still "active", waiting for the right time to release "news"

think about announcements as "plays" by shitcoin teams to pump their coins.

(sorry if you thought pornhub = mass adoption)

2 - is this coin still going down?

well this is the fun part (where our technical analysis comes in)

its one thing to understand why charts move, it's another to predict when. let's keep things simple and do this in 3 easy steps.

1 - price floor
2 - trendlines
3 - shakeouts

1 - price floor

support & resistance is the most basic, simple, and effective means of analysis.

new traders tend to seek out sophisticated, complex and "alpha" trading systems filled with indicators, strategies and signals they simply don't understand.

sometimes less is more

lets look at $XVG's price floor

if we zoom in a bit, we can see that sometime in the middle of 2019, verge seemed to stop going down.

at about 34/35/36 sats, price would simply bounce and hold the line.

this is our first indication that demand exists at this price.

2 - trendlines

lets zoom in a bit and see what the trend is doing

a price floor on its own can indicate price has stopped going down, trendlines can tell us if price is going up.

buckle in, time for the most comprehensive guide on trendlines you have EVER seen

just kidding. a monkey could draw trendlines

all we're really doing here is drawing lines on these charts.

the price floor is a line/box, the trend is a line. its simple and effective, no bells and whistles or secret knowledge needed.

A - downtrend
B - breakout
C - uptrend

and then continued...

A - downtrend
B - breakout
C - ????????

3 - shakeouts

this part is a little more complicated, but i think we can understand it easily.

to understand shakeouts, you need to understand how altcoins work.

altcoins can and will 100x. is this 10,000% price increase a result of increased demand or "value" of the coin?

no

think about altcoins the way you would think about drugs.

drugs? like weed, shrooms and LSD? (no, sorry @LSDinmycoffee)

when I say drugs I'm talking about pharmaceuticals, and I want to tell you a story about a man named...

Martin Shkreli

Martin Shkreli is current serving a 7-year prison sentence for securities fraud, but thats not whats important here.

before his conviction, martin became infamous as a pharmaceutical executive who jacked up the cost of a life-saving drug by 5000% overnight from $13.50 to $750

what martin did may have been ethically wrong, but it wasn't illegal.

he had a monopoly on the supply of the drug.

that monopoly allowed him to move the price of that drug to any price he deemed fit, the same way that an artist creating NFTs can determine the price of them.

the more supply you own of something, the more control you have over its price.

now of course, with no demand the value doesn't exist.

i can create an NFT of my ballsack and list it for 100 $ETH

i don't think anyone is going to buy it. (but if you would please DM me)

but, what happens when the things being sold are actually promises of innovation, technology and the future?

who wouldn't want to buy the future?

the whole point of investing in something is because you think its going to be worth more in the FUTURE

not only that.

its in our nature to solve problems. it makes us feel smart and important.

when you hear that a coin appreciated nearly 10,000% in a month it makes you ask one simple question:

why?

and thats the beauty of this game. my nuts aren't the future, but crypto is.

somehow crypto has become a self-fulfilling prophecy ponzi scheme that may never actually go down.

the higher it goes, the more demand there is. and this is going to continue until we have adoption.

this may be news to you, but its not news to the guys that have already gotten rich playing this game.

all you need to do is

A: get a lot of money
B: accumulate a ton of supply of a shitcoin
C: pump that coin up 100x YOURSELF
D: sell a narrative, pay for a partnership

and this game isn't fair to the rest of us.

we simply don't have as much power as these whales because we don't have as much money as them.

but, you CAN swim with the whales if you understand the way they stroke.

$XVG whales stroked by using pornhub to unload on us in 2018

but thats the top. what about the bottom? (can we fit a @Hardwood_ joke into here?)

if these whales wanna pump up the price, first they have to accumulate the supply.

this is the part where we can try to swim with them.

for whales to accumulate supply, they need other players to sell to them.

this process is akin to psychological torture.

something similar to mercilessly dumping price for a year, followed by meticulously chopping sideways for a year with EVERY small pump full retracing.

hm

now this process does two things:

1 - forces you to sell your bags to the whales
2 - re-enforces the idea that altcoins only go down and will have you selling every tiny pump

you're sitting there, watching in as price rips 10,000% after you sold for your "grand" 150 percent

and so, here we are. December 5th, 2020.

the majority of the participants (that made it through) the last cycle have sold off nearly all of their altcoins. but who did they sell them to?

and now, are they even interested in them with new narratives emerging? (thanks @CL207)

I can tell you right now, nobody wants to buy $XVG

- its an absolute shitcoin
- it only goes down
- there are newer and shinier coins to buy

and with all of that being true, why would you EVER keep holding if price were to break its price floor?

well, thats what happened

and then, right after price breaks its price floor, a slur of volume comes in and price reclaims that level that had been held for nearly a year.

the question is, who is buying?

could it be the same people that had been buying all 2019 at 34, 35 and 36 sats?

when price breaks a price floor and then reclaims it, its called a deviation.

a deviation, a fakeout, a way to get you to sell to them...the same people that have been buying this coin down here for more than a year and a half.

and now, here we are at the final part to this thread:

well, lets do a quick recap on what we've learned

- $XVG is a huge scam
- most everybody has probably sold & nobody wants to buy this shit
- someone keeps buying at 34, 35 & 36 sats
- just had a deviation + trendline break

final part: how do we time a pump and dump?

well, an old legend says that whales will test the waters before heading for the kill, just to make sure they're in the right environment for what they're trying to achieve.

step #1 - start buying, establish price floor

step #2 - breakout of downtrend

step #3 - test the waters

remember, this is not a chart, this is a meticulous operation.

whales HATE weak hands. they don't do all of this because they want you to be poor, they do this because they don't want you to slow them down.

test the waters and see if people sell

they want you to sell to them cheap, and during the window that they are accumulating.

they don't want you to sell to them while they are pumping the coin, because the more resistance they face, the more they have to spend on the pump budget and the less shareholders make

4 - final shakeout

after the years of psychological torture, after nearly all the coins have been accumulated, one last shakeout where the price floor "breaks" and $XVG is "headed to zero"

this aligns perfectly with current sentiment and active narratives. $XVG is worthless

$XVG is worthless right now *because* its cheap

$XVG is worthless right now *because* its not going up

$XVG is worthless right now *because* there are better coins

right now, $XVG is worthless. until its not

I'm not some $XVG psycho fanboy, I just like this chart.

and there are a LOT of other charts out there that look just like this.

I don't think this game is particularly hard to play, as long as you know the rules.