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Exiles Inside & Outside the Box
A thread
https://exilesanalysis.wordpress.com/2020/11/26/exiles-inside-outside-the-box/
A thread
https://exilesanalysis.wordpress.com/2020/11/26/exiles-inside-outside-the-box/
A few hours before the Walsall game on Tuesday night I summarised my thoughts on Newport County topping the table by saying:
“"We're fair game for top 3, we've conceded some soft goals from outside the box. We've missed some great scoring chances consistently this season and then score an unlikely goal - it balances well, but there's not much danger from our strikers in general."” –
We went on to concede a goal that could have been defended better, score the most ridiculous goal via a goalkeeping howler, and miss one of the easiest chances across the division that evening.
To be clear, we're performing very much as expected based on chance creation but you could split our own chances into two categories; Expected Goals inside & outside the box.
Newport have taken the 3rd (Opta) most shots in the league, 42% of those from outside the box (ranking 5th highest in league for long shots).
Compare that to Exeter, Cambridge (ignore the pens), or Cheltenham, who all take the vast majority of their shots from inside the box and lead the scoring tables.
It's fair to say we could probably be creating better scoring opportunities, but we could also be better at finishing the opportunities we have.
And here lies the (kind of) issue. We under perform inside the penalty area, and we over perform outside the penalty area.
And here lies the (kind of) issue. We under perform inside the penalty area, and we over perform outside the penalty area.
We have converted many of the chances we have had in the 6 yard box which is what you want, but we've also missed a few - as has every team. However, you can't help but feel we should be getting far more efforts on target from central positions inside the box.
What you see is less chances going through the middle and more coming from wide of the goal where the chance quality decreases. Ironically it's those shots from the wide areas that are on target as opposed to our more central chances.
xG would have us scoring around 19 goals inside the box based on the shot locations, while we have scored 16. There are some big chances in here that have been hit straight at the keeper or missed the target altogether.
While outside the box we have scored 5 goals from around 3 xG.
Scott Twine is obviously the outlier here. His shot technique causes all sorts of issues for keepers, and you're unsure where it's going to end up though you generally know it's going to be on target.
The concern here is whether any player can consistently defy the law of averages as Twine has been doing so far. If he hadn't chipped in with a couple of those wonder strikes, we may have dropped a few points this season.
The upside of shooting from distance can be the chaos it creates; loose balls, goalkeeper parries etc. Both goals against Bolton came from these situations.
But the point remains, we need to start getting more shots off from central positions inside the box and we need to start getting them on target. If the goals start drying up from outside the box, we could see a dip in our underlying numbers in front of goal.
Wins could become draws, and draws could become losses.
In fairness to ours strikers, they have done well from the shots they have had - though you would want your strikers taking more shots in general. Cambridge, Forest Green, Exeter, Cheltenham, they all have strikers leading the shot ranks.
For me, Padraig Amond is by far the best finisher at the club, I'd like to see more quality chances presented to him because you know he can take his chances, he just isn't having enough. Give him game time, create good opportunities, and he will score.
I'm certainly not bemoaning this season, I would never have imagined it. But if for any reason we lose one of the big creators in Scott Twine, we need to ensure we start taking those chances inside the box.
This thread can be read here: https://exilesanalysis.wordpress.com/2020/11/26/exiles-inside-outside-the-box/
