[THREAD] It’s been widely reported this week that school attendance is “collapsing” because “Coronavirus is running riot." https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-55057125

Is that actually true? I decided to check the data myself.

It’s true that attendance has fallen… from 86% to 83%. In primary schools it’s fallen from 90% to 87%; in secondaries from 83% to 78%.

It’s not great, but overall 8 in 10 kids are in school. The peak (back in October) was 9 in 10 kids.

If, as in the spring, schools were to close to all pupils except vulnerable children & children of key workers, with the result that only 1 in 10 children go to school… now *that* would be a “collapse” in attendance.

What about this notion that Covid is “running riot” in schools? Does the data show that?

Not quite:
- 0.2% of pupils had a confirmed case of Covid – same as the week before.
- 0.6% of pupils had suspected OR confirmed Covid. It was 0.5% the week before

Another big, shocking number that’s been reported is that 876,000 children were off school for “Covid-related reasons.”

Is that true? Actually, yes. But as always, the devil’s in the detail…

Of this 876,000 children:

- 2% had confirmed Covid
- 3.5% had suspected Covid
- 87% weren’t ill themselves, but told to stay at home due to potential contact with a case of Covid
- 7.5% were unable to attend because their school shut (most likely teacher shortages)

It’s these last two groups – children told to self-isolate or whose school couldn’t operate – are key drivers of the fall in attendance. This group has grown by 254,000 compared to the week before. That’s an additional quarter of million kids who aren’t ill but can’t go to school

That alone is equivalent to a 3% drop in the number of children going to school. In other words, it more or less accounts for the entire fall in overall attendance from 86% to 83%.

By comparison, the number of pupils with suspected or confirmed Covid has gone up by 7k compared to the previous week. An increase of 0.1%.

That’s not to say there aren’t issues – clearly there are. But “Covid running riot” isn’t one of them.

Two big issues to sort out:

1. For each pupil with confirmed Covid, a further 42 are sent home to self-isolate. Was 39 the week before; 25 two weeks before.

We recently showed that in some secondaries it’s over 100! https://www.childrenscommissioner.gov.uk/report/school-return-covid-19-and-school-attendance/

2. The number of pupils who can’t attend because their school can’t operate due to Covid has tripled from 21k to 66k. This shows the growing impact of staff shortages, which is a real concern.

Firstly, the best way to keep teachers and pupils safe is to drive down transmission within the community. That is what will end up being reflected in the schools.

But we also need more & faster testing, with priority access for teachers, to reduce numbers having to self-isolate. Isolation must focus on close contacts only. And schools need more help (including financial) to provide cover so that lessons/classes don’t have to be cancelled.

If Covid really was “running riot” – in every classroom, corridor & canteen – schools may have to close. But SAGE confirmed that we have no clear evidence of systematic, within-school transmission.

Instead, the actual problems can be fixed while keeping schools open.

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