Read on Twitter
1/24
To those that advocate that companies in the Covid testing field, have somehow seen their best days, are you sure that you've studied your subject well enough?
I have already shared my opinion on dose availability.
#ODX #AVCT https://twitter.com/BigBiteNow/status/1330848557730041858?s=20
To those that advocate that companies in the Covid testing field, have somehow seen their best days, are you sure that you've studied your subject well enough?
I have already shared my opinion on dose availability.
#ODX #AVCT https://twitter.com/BigBiteNow/status/1330848557730041858?s=20
2/24
As time goes by, more vaccines will likely join the fray and capacity will likely expand, but on the current best case 40% of the world basis, a lot has got to happen and happen well and it all takes time.
However, there are other complications here to consider.
As time goes by, more vaccines will likely join the fray and capacity will likely expand, but on the current best case 40% of the world basis, a lot has got to happen and happen well and it all takes time.
However, there are other complications here to consider.
3/24
The first being children.
To date only Pfizer have recently (see next post) gained FDA approval for children, as young as 12 years old.
But states 16 to 17 year olds were included in earlier FDA approval but that ; https://www.aamc.org/news-insights/we-can-t-defeat-covid-19-without-vaccinating-children-there-arent-even-any-kids-clinical-trials-yet
The first being children.
To date only Pfizer have recently (see next post) gained FDA approval for children, as young as 12 years old.
But states 16 to 17 year olds were included in earlier FDA approval but that ; https://www.aamc.org/news-insights/we-can-t-defeat-covid-19-without-vaccinating-children-there-arent-even-any-kids-clinical-trials-yet
4/24
"won’t add anyone younger until it analyzes results from those older teenagers."
"Other COVID-19 vaccine developers, including Johnson & Johnson, Moderna, and AstraZeneca, say they plan to run trials for children in the United States at some point."
"won’t add anyone younger until it analyzes results from those older teenagers."
"Other COVID-19 vaccine developers, including Johnson & Johnson, Moderna, and AstraZeneca, say they plan to run trials for children in the United States at some point."
5/24
"“Enrollment of children will start once sufficient data are gathered in adults,” AstraZeneca stated in reply to an inquiry."
meaning that ;
“If pediatric trials don’t start soon, we’re going to lose our window” to vaccinate children by the start of the next school year"
"“Enrollment of children will start once sufficient data are gathered in adults,” AstraZeneca stated in reply to an inquiry."
meaning that ;
“If pediatric trials don’t start soon, we’re going to lose our window” to vaccinate children by the start of the next school year"
6/24
That fall 2021 at best, then they have to be studied for effectiveness, to gain confidence in society. More on that shortly.
The Pfizer update can be found here and demonstrated the inclusion of 12-15 year olds as of 23rd Oct 2020. https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/record/NCT04368728?term=vaccine&type=Intr&cond=Covid19&cntry=US&age=0&draw=2
That fall 2021 at best, then they have to be studied for effectiveness, to gain confidence in society. More on that shortly.
The Pfizer update can be found here and demonstrated the inclusion of 12-15 year olds as of 23rd Oct 2020. https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/record/NCT04368728?term=vaccine&type=Intr&cond=Covid19&cntry=US&age=0&draw=2
7/24
"The nation’s 73 million children (age 18 and under) account for one-fifth of its population, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. And another 3.7 million babies are born each year."
That's c. 22% of the nation.
Now this isn't about these children facing adverse danger,
"The nation’s 73 million children (age 18 and under) account for one-fifth of its population, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. And another 3.7 million babies are born each year."
That's c. 22% of the nation.
Now this isn't about these children facing adverse danger,
8/24
this is about as a minimum herd immunity, if it indeed ever exists and the susceptibility that the more vulnerable members of society have to catching Covid.
73m is a lot of grand children.
this is about as a minimum herd immunity, if it indeed ever exists and the susceptibility that the more vulnerable members of society have to catching Covid.
73m is a lot of grand children.
9/24
To that we need to add the adults that simply refuse to take the vaccine.
(US example) If 70% of the 78% of adults agree to receive a vaccine, then even at a very good outcome of c. 70% real world effectiveness, we only achieve 38% population coverage, until such time...
To that we need to add the adults that simply refuse to take the vaccine.
(US example) If 70% of the 78% of adults agree to receive a vaccine, then even at a very good outcome of c. 70% real world effectiveness, we only achieve 38% population coverage, until such time...
10/24
...that children are included and inoculated, which is minimum 2022 and even then we fall short.
Yes the likes of Pfizer and Moderna are stating front end 90-95% but their real world outcomes, are highly likely going to be a lot lower.
See here. https://theconversation.com/pfizer-vaccine-what-an-efficacy-rate-above-90-really-means-149849
...that children are included and inoculated, which is minimum 2022 and even then we fall short.
Yes the likes of Pfizer and Moderna are stating front end 90-95% but their real world outcomes, are highly likely going to be a lot lower.
See here. https://theconversation.com/pfizer-vaccine-what-an-efficacy-rate-above-90-really-means-149849
11/24
Now my 70% fig. may turn out to be too low and the situation far better than that but without children, its still falling too short.
However, right now 'just' 58% of Americans are willing to take a vaccine, which remains someway short of that 70% example fig.
Now my 70% fig. may turn out to be too low and the situation far better than that but without children, its still falling too short.
However, right now 'just' 58% of Americans are willing to take a vaccine, which remains someway short of that 70% example fig.
12/24
When all is said and done, these figs are still very good and death rates will decline and some normality should return.
However, what all of the above says, is not only are things going to take time but doubt is going to remain, and doubt is also key here.
When all is said and done, these figs are still very good and death rates will decline and some normality should return.
However, what all of the above says, is not only are things going to take time but doubt is going to remain, and doubt is also key here.
13/24
Here's the CDC plans for "ensuring that Covid vaccines work and is well worth a read.
These real world studies are going to take time and are purely centred around effectiveness but in time will highly likely include immunity duration.
Time. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/effectiveness.html
Here's the CDC plans for "ensuring that Covid vaccines work and is well worth a read.
These real world studies are going to take time and are purely centred around effectiveness but in time will highly likely include immunity duration.
Time. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/effectiveness.html
14/24
Until such studies report, nobody is truly going to know the level of protection they have.
More importantly, no matter how many doses exist, nobody is ever going to know if they are protected because not everyone can be.
Without children included, no vulnerable person...
Until such studies report, nobody is truly going to know the level of protection they have.
More importantly, no matter how many doses exist, nobody is ever going to know if they are protected because not everyone can be.
Without children included, no vulnerable person...
15/24
...can ever be sure that they won't catch Covid from their grandchildren or contact with young people.
Many perhaps won't care but enough will to make the market substantial, particularly for easy to administer self tests, available over the counter.
...can ever be sure that they won't catch Covid from their grandchildren or contact with young people.
Many perhaps won't care but enough will to make the market substantial, particularly for easy to administer self tests, available over the counter.
16/24
To this we must add all those that work or look after vulnerable people in society.
With such unknown factors around effectiveness/duration of immunity/low herd immunity figs, which hospital/care home or family member, is going to avoid employing cheap rapid testing,
To this we must add all those that work or look after vulnerable people in society.
With such unknown factors around effectiveness/duration of immunity/low herd immunity figs, which hospital/care home or family member, is going to avoid employing cheap rapid testing,
17/24
particularly when its available over the counter and/or will likely be heavily subsidized by government, as a means to push responsibility and an element of cost, away from central government and expensive PCR.
Now throw in all those doctors surgeries and chemists.
particularly when its available over the counter and/or will likely be heavily subsidized by government, as a means to push responsibility and an element of cost, away from central government and expensive PCR.
Now throw in all those doctors surgeries and chemists.
18/24
With so much clear and longer term uncertainty over vaccine effectiveness, how many medical professionals are going to deny their patients a cheap rapid test and let them loose in society, particularly when subsidised or even paid for by said patient?
Not many i suspect.
With so much clear and longer term uncertainty over vaccine effectiveness, how many medical professionals are going to deny their patients a cheap rapid test and let them loose in society, particularly when subsidised or even paid for by said patient?
Not many i suspect.
19/24
Whatever vaccines come and however fast, there's a massive front end market for rapid POC testing, that means no one short term contract with one government, truly matters.
Post that, its highly unlikely that all vaccines put together, can eradicate Covid, to the point..
Whatever vaccines come and however fast, there's a massive front end market for rapid POC testing, that means no one short term contract with one government, truly matters.
Post that, its highly unlikely that all vaccines put together, can eradicate Covid, to the point..
20/24
...that some elements of society won't require testing in order to remove that doubt.
That's because they all face the same hurdles.
Children/real world effectiveness/take up...
and because Covid is highly contagious and severe enough for enough people in society,
...that some elements of society won't require testing in order to remove that doubt.
That's because they all face the same hurdles.
Children/real world effectiveness/take up...
and because Covid is highly contagious and severe enough for enough people in society,
21/24
the need for testing as a control and peace of mind measure, is going to continue for the foreseeable future, and even then it will need to be reviewed over and over, because all of this example, is centred around the US, a country with arguable the best access to vaccines.
the need for testing as a control and peace of mind measure, is going to continue for the foreseeable future, and even then it will need to be reviewed over and over, because all of this example, is centred around the US, a country with arguable the best access to vaccines.
22/24
Yes as time goes on, revenues will fall and competition will increase, which is why quality and competitive advantages, remain key and said company attributes must continue to be monitored.
But these companies truly win through this longevity and not these front end...
Yes as time goes on, revenues will fall and competition will increase, which is why quality and competitive advantages, remain key and said company attributes must continue to be monitored.
But these companies truly win through this longevity and not these front end...
23/24
...power spikes, that so many people wish to drive.
Smaller regular revenues wins the day, especially for companies with other serviceable ideas, to offer.
The testing race has really only just begun and for the best providers, its going to run for a long time yet.
...power spikes, that so many people wish to drive.
Smaller regular revenues wins the day, especially for companies with other serviceable ideas, to offer.
The testing race has really only just begun and for the best providers, its going to run for a long time yet.
24/24
If that weren't enough, imagine what lack of herd immunity/uncertainty, means for the borders of these newly vaccinated western countries, when it comes.
If countries play the vaccination card, they will lose out substantially.
So for me, testing will play a big part.
If that weren't enough, imagine what lack of herd immunity/uncertainty, means for the borders of these newly vaccinated western countries, when it comes.
If countries play the vaccination card, they will lose out substantially.
So for me, testing will play a big part.
