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The most important part of Covid (and most vexing) is this: what is the IFR?
CFR measures recorded cases but what everyone wants to know is how likely are they to die?
Since Feb, I’ve argued with @CT_Bergstrom and many others on this
The answer appears to be…not very likely
CFR measures recorded cases but what everyone wants to know is how likely are they to die?
Since Feb, I’ve argued with @CT_Bergstrom and many others on this
The answer appears to be…not very likely
Let’s start on a high level: There have been 13M cases & 262k deaths (CFR = 2%). Two problems
1. Testing was woefully inadequate. We didn’t hit 1M daily tests till 7/24. We still haven’t hit 2M
2. We meticulously track daily #s but deaths lag cases by 10-14 days
1. Testing was woefully inadequate. We didn’t hit 1M daily tests till 7/24. We still haven’t hit 2M
2. We meticulously track daily #s but deaths lag cases by 10-14 days
OK let’s tackle problem #2 first: Giving deaths 2 weeks to catch up:
Summer wave
Cases – 4,334,820 (from 6/14 – 9/10)
Deaths – 76,868 (from 6/28 – 9/24)
CFR – 1.8%
Fall Wave
Cases – 4,448,485 (from 9/11 – 11/10)
Deaths – 56,653 (from 9/25 – 11/24)
CFR – 1.3%
Summer wave
Cases – 4,334,820 (from 6/14 – 9/10)
Deaths – 76,868 (from 6/28 – 9/24)
CFR – 1.8%
Fall Wave
Cases – 4,448,485 (from 9/11 – 11/10)
Deaths – 56,653 (from 9/25 – 11/24)
CFR – 1.3%
So what jumps out?
1. The CFR in fall wave is 28% *lower*
2.Cases are rapidly accelerating: we got the same number of cases in 2/3 of the time
…so is CFR lower b/c of more testing, better therapies or both? Probably both. But our inability to say for sure is the issue w/ CFR
1. The CFR in fall wave is 28% *lower*
2.Cases are rapidly accelerating: we got the same number of cases in 2/3 of the time
…so is CFR lower b/c of more testing, better therapies or both? Probably both. But our inability to say for sure is the issue w/ CFR
The best modeler @youyanggu thinks the higher tests positivity, the GREATER prevalence of Covid.
e.g., If positivity is 2%, the true cases are 10x higher
Thus, current positivity rate of 9% means cases are ~18x higher than reported (!!)
The implications here are staggering
e.g., If positivity is 2%, the true cases are 10x higher
Thus, current positivity rate of 9% means cases are ~18x higher than reported (!!)
The implications here are staggering
Through May, NYC had 200k cases but the NYT reports that (in April!) 20% of NYers had Covid
That is an undercount of 10x in real vs. reported
Some ranges nationally:
10x reported = 130M cases (IFR = 0.2%)
7x = 91M (IFR = 0.3%)
5x = 65M (IFR = 0.4%) https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/nyregion/coronavirus-antibodies-test-ny.html
That is an undercount of 10x in real vs. reported
Some ranges nationally:
10x reported = 130M cases (IFR = 0.2%)
7x = 91M (IFR = 0.3%)
5x = 65M (IFR = 0.4%) https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/nyregion/coronavirus-antibodies-test-ny.html
...all to say north of 60M Americans have had Covid w/ deaths <275k
The chances of dying from Covid are 0.2 - 0.5%. The same odds of giving birth to twins
Be extremely cautious around ppl >65, don't be reckless, but...those are the #s
The chances of dying from Covid are 0.2 - 0.5%. The same odds of giving birth to twins
Be extremely cautious around ppl >65, don't be reckless, but...those are the #s
Addendum: in case I wasn’t crystal clear, Covid is much deadlier for old ppl
The CFR for those over 65 is 9%.
I am simply presenting the numbers & possibilities of IFR. But do not be cavalier around seniors
The CFR for those over 65 is 9%.
I am simply presenting the numbers & possibilities of IFR. But do not be cavalier around seniors
