many wonder if the big trends of the trump era—working-class whites becoming solid red, latinos moving right, suburban whites moving left—will continue once he leaves office

the answer is yes because the trends driving those changes here are happening everywhere in the west

i suppose one could qualify that with “as long as republicans continue moving in a populist direction” but that is almost certainly inevitable as the nature of the republican party’s base has changed

an establishment romney-esque shill has little chance of winning a primary and if they somehow did, they would lose the general with a suboptimal coalition, so the party will be forced to respond to electoral incentives in one way or another

that’s true for right-wing parties in all western democracies but it’s especially the case for the United States, where increasing racial diversity means that the old romney coalition of suburban whites mathematically can’t work as time marches on

the republican party has two options:

1. embrace populism
2. die

you and i both know they will eventually choose option 1 even if it takes several election cycles (but i don’t think it will)