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Perhaps the most important number in the spending review today is £27 billion
It’s the best guess by the OBR at how much taxes may have to rise or spending fall to close the permanent deficit
And the government just doesn’t want to talk about it.
But we do/
£27 billion/
Here it is on page 5 of the OBR
“Even on the loosest conventional definition of balancing the books, a fiscal adjustment of £27 billion would be required to match day to day spending to receipts by the end of the 5 year forecast”
Here it is on page 5 of the OBR
“Even on the loosest conventional definition of balancing the books, a fiscal adjustment of £27 billion would be required to match day to day spending to receipts by the end of the 5 year forecast”
£27 billion/
Why does this matter? That is what it’ll take to close the current deficit according to the OBR.
In 2010, the figure George Osborne announced was £40 billion: this gives you a sense of Parliament defining scale of the challenge ahead.
But the gvt says...
Why does this matter? That is what it’ll take to close the current deficit according to the OBR.
In 2010, the figure George Osborne announced was £40 billion: this gives you a sense of Parliament defining scale of the challenge ahead.
But the gvt says...
£27 billion/
... nothing
The gvt will not acknowledge the £27 billion or say if it’s even remotely right.
They says the OBR is an “independent forecaster” and now is “not the time to put figures on it given uncertainty”
Why?
... nothing
The gvt will not acknowledge the £27 billion or say if it’s even remotely right.
They says the OBR is an “independent forecaster” and now is “not the time to put figures on it given uncertainty”
Why?
£27 billion/
They don’t want to engage presumably because
- They don’t want a £27 billion tax bombshell headline
- They’ve spent a huge amount of money today so it’s mixed messages
- Theres no answer yet to “when to raise taxes” debate ... so just don’t start it
They don’t want to engage presumably because
- They don’t want a £27 billion tax bombshell headline
- They’ve spent a huge amount of money today so it’s mixed messages
- Theres no answer yet to “when to raise taxes” debate ... so just don’t start it
£27 billion/
There was lots of bad news in the OBR forecast published alongside the spending review. £394 bn debt this year. Unemployment peaks at 2.4 million.
But they’ve put off the debate about the consequences - the pain - to another day. Very Boris. Not very George.
There was lots of bad news in the OBR forecast published alongside the spending review. £394 bn debt this year. Unemployment peaks at 2.4 million.
But they’ve put off the debate about the consequences - the pain - to another day. Very Boris. Not very George.
£27 billion/
As part of Rishi’s complete rejection of Osbornomics, apart from aid cuts and public sector pay freeze, today was a spending bonanza
£14.8bn more for Whitehall departments
As part of Rishi’s complete rejection of Osbornomics, apart from aid cuts and public sector pay freeze, today was a spending bonanza
£14.8bn more for Whitehall departments
£27 billion/
So we don’t know from the Treasury
The scale of the deficit to be filled in
The timescale it must be done over
The mix of tax and spend
Because of “uncertainty”
Even tho the OBR was confident enough to put and in their Executive Summary:
So we don’t know from the Treasury
The scale of the deficit to be filled in The timescale it must be done over The mix of tax and spend Because of “uncertainty”
Even tho the OBR was confident enough to put
and in their Executive Summary:
£27 billion/
The problem for Tories is that they don’t have long to solve these questions.
This - 2020 - is the moment in a Parliament - furthest from a general election - where you have the political space to raise taxes. Delay it and the pain comes closer to the 2024 poll
The problem for Tories is that they don’t have long to solve these questions.
This - 2020 - is the moment in a Parliament - furthest from a general election - where you have the political space to raise taxes. Delay it and the pain comes closer to the 2024 poll
£27 billion/
The founder of the Northern Research Group Jake Berry says wait til 2024
https://news.sky.com/story/spending-review-delay-tax-rises-plea-as-the-chancellor-prepares-to-reveal-dire-economic-forecasts-12141437
But do you then have to put £27 billion tax rises in the Tory manifesto
. Or, er, fudge it?
The founder of the Northern Research Group Jake Berry says wait til 2024
https://news.sky.com/story/spending-review-delay-tax-rises-plea-as-the-chancellor-prepares-to-reveal-dire-economic-forecasts-12141437
But do you then have to put £27 billion tax rises in the Tory manifesto
. Or, er, fudge it?
£27 billion/
So the dilemma will roll into next year
Rishi Sunak has dodged this question today. But it’s not going away.
And a credible answer to the “how big” question is on the OBR document he laid before Parliament today.
So the dilemma will roll into next year
Rishi Sunak has dodged this question today. But it’s not going away.
And a credible answer to the “how big” question is on the OBR document he laid before Parliament today.
