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1. One of key ways that the Biden admin can create consensus around a more ambitious Iran policy is appeals to transatlantic unity. This @laurnorman report points to an all too typical failure of European policymakers to seize the moment + set the agenda. https://www.wsj.com/articles/european-powers-won-t-push-biden-for-swift-u-s-return-to-iranian-nuclear-deal-11606314800
2. At the heart of this is a simple misinterpretation. As European diplos told @laurnorman, "The Biden team has kept its detailed Iran plans largely to itself so far." They have interpreted this radio silence to mean that Biden's nat sec team will take a wait-and-see approach.
3. In fact, the lack of outreach probably indicates the general chaos of the transition and the fact that Biden is poised to be *more* ambitious than Euros currently expect--something the team may not wish to telegraph too soon. See @lrozen's report here: https://www.justsecurity.org/73488/why-biden-may-try-to-return-to-iran-nuclear-deal-before-renegotiating-it/
4. The Europeans losing their sense of vision for the Iran file and it becoming a reportable fact sends a bad signal to Tehran.
After all, the Europeans falteringly worked to keep the Iran nuclear deal alive for four years and Iran patiently put up with many empty promises.
After all, the Europeans falteringly worked to keep the Iran nuclear deal alive for four years and Iran patiently put up with many empty promises.
5. Now, a Biden victory has gifted the JCPOA parties the chance to consolidate the deal and its legacy, but suddenly the Europeans are unwilling to seize the moment because of the tendency to subordinate Iran policy to an (assumed?) American agenda.
6. To be clear, I don't think @laurnorman's report reflects the agreed hymn sheet in European capitals. What we have now is a particular chorus singing their usual tune, looking to the White House to set the tone. It's a sad little song that Tehran has heard before.
