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1. Bad news for all the Sweden and herd immunity addicts out there: even Anders Tegnell admits he is not seeing any sign of herd immunity helping and explains that a 2nd wave is on the way. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8983053/Sweden-admits-seeing-no-sign-herd-immunity-slowing-spread-Covid-19.html
2. It's of course *very* visible in the number of COVID-19 cases and it was already a while back... once again Anders Tegnell is late to the party with this!
3. Now, I can foresee that the herd-immunity addicts out there will tell me that it's because the testing capacity has increased that there are more positive cases...
It's actually true, but there are two things to considers.
It's actually true, but there are two things to considers.
4. First thing, is that yes we test more, but the positivity rate of tests shows that it's not just an increase in testing capacity that's responsible for this alarming increase in cases. The positivity rate increase is also alarming.
5. The second thing is that testing capacity has actually been maxed out in many places so people have to wait to be tested. There is consequently a delay in the number of cases and potentially some people even give up if they are not really sick https://uk.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-sweden-testing/testing-falls-short-as-sweden-battles-second-pandemic-wave-idINL8N2I43XL
6. I will not mention that the whole testing information is only available in Swedish (which could also deter some other people) as I think it's marginal, but it is nonetheless a thing.
https://www.krisinformation.se/en/hazards-and-risks/disasters-and-incidents/2020/official-information-on-the-new-coronavirus/tests-vaccine-and-treatments
https://www.krisinformation.se/en/hazards-and-risks/disasters-and-incidents/2020/official-information-on-the-new-coronavirus/tests-vaccine-and-treatments
7. Now what about the deaths? I can foresee the question coming of course. It is going up, and as I explained before, it was simply a 3-5 week delay of what we see in the number of cases.
8. Now people will tell me of course that on the precedent image the deaths are going down... but it's actually not the case...
9. This is explained by the simple fact that deaths tend to be reported with a delay of 5 to 10 days and therefore explains why deaths always seem to go down in the last 10 days in Sweden. https://ourworldindata.org/covid-sweden-death-reporting
10. It's been reported by a lot of different sources.
@jburnmurdoch made a quick thread about it that's quite helpful and shows that the data on deaths in Sweden is *not* so nice https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1329364005140434945?s=20
@jburnmurdoch made a quick thread about it that's quite helpful and shows that the data on deaths in Sweden is *not* so nice https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1329364005140434945?s=20
11. And @adamaltmejd has made a very helpful visualization of the delay in deaths reports in Sweden. https://adamaltmejd.se/covid/
12. I won't expand more on this. The deaths reports are coming in for the last two weeks and it is not going to look nice at all. Quite the opposite.
13. Now how do the neighbours (who have adopted much stricter measures) fair? The question is to be expected after all. And guess what... they do better on all other aspects: cases, positivity rates of test, and deaths. By Far.
14. Sweden has more cases per million than all its neighbours combined.
15. Denmark tests 3 times more than Sweden with respect to its population while the other 3 have somewhat similar testing.
16. And how bad the situation is in Sweden is confirmed by the alarming positivity rate of Sweden compared to its neighbours.
17. And the number of deaths per million in Sweden DESPITE THE DELAY in the report that is Swedish-specific as explained above, is worst than all its neighbours combined.
18. Finally a quick reminder that Sweden has had approximately 3 times the cumulative number of deaths of its neighbours combined...
19. I have explained a thousand times why comparing to France, because of demographics, made no sense, so I won't expand on this at all again. Please refer to older threads. https://twitter.com/lonnibesancon/status/1324526704006733824?s=20
20. Now to rebut the argument that Sweden is saving its economy: it's not when compared to neighbour it also does worst. https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1327230815714074625?s=20
21. So now what is the situation in terms of restrictions. More and more are implemented. No alcohol served in bars after 10 pm (instead of 12 or 01).
Gathering of more than 8 people are forbidden.
And this is not a recommendation https://www.thelocal.se/20201116/explained-what-does-swedens-new-limit-on-public-events-actually-mean
Gathering of more than 8 people are forbidden.
And this is not a recommendation https://www.thelocal.se/20201116/explained-what-does-swedens-new-limit-on-public-events-actually-mean
21. Despite this and the catastrophic figures, Tegnell maintains that mouth protection is not useful, which is clearly misguided and anti-scientific and based on the non-evidence-based idea that people use them wrongly so they don't work or make things worse
22. This is what he says here https://www.dn.se/sverige/tegnell-munskydd-ar-inte-raddningen/
23. And he's been called out by many people on this stupid argument including here: https://www.dn.se/ledare/darfor-bor-sverige-anvanda-munskydd/
24. On the other hand, Finland has stricter measures on masks since October... and so does Denmark
It's about time people realise that Sweden is a cautionary tale and about time Tegnell listens to science.
https://www.themayor.eu/en/finland-greatly-tightens-mask-wearing-requirements https://www.thelocal.dk/20201029/denmarks-extended-face-mask-requirement-takes-effect-these-are-the-rules-you-need-to-know
It's about time people realise that Sweden is a cautionary tale and about time Tegnell listens to science.
https://www.themayor.eu/en/finland-greatly-tightens-mask-wearing-requirements https://www.thelocal.dk/20201029/denmarks-extended-face-mask-requirement-takes-effect-these-are-the-rules-you-need-to-know
Poke @DavidSteadson
