NEW: the government has privately admitted the combined impact of Covid + pandemic will disrupt multiple essential services including food, medicine & drinking water & risks plunging UK into a ‘systemic financial crisis’. From @_EmmaGH & me https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/nov/24/uk-facing-risk-of-systemic-economic-crisis-official-paper-says

The ‘official sensitive’ briefing of ‘Reasonable Worst Case Scenarios’ has been distributed to multiple govt agencies.

Yesterday, the Cabinet Office refused to comment on both the content of the leaked documents or why these scenarios were being kept secret from the public

This document needs to be read by the British public. It’s Operation Yellowhammer updated to reflect situation now with the country preparing to exit Europe in the middle of a pandemic. It depicts a nation under huge pressure without time or capacity to prepare for what’s ahead

‘Concurrent events’ ‘financial instability’ ‘commercial failure’ these are just the headlines.

‘There is a notable risk of disruptive concurrent events happening towards the end of 2029’

‘A financial crisis may increase other risks such as public disorder & mental health’

‘The pandemic has limited capacity of healthcare sector to prepare’

‘Critical supply chains will come under pressure, particularly medical ones’

‘Councils...at high risk of financial failure’

The document assesses 20 critical areas according to a traffic light system

Border disruption - red
UK nationals in EU - red
Oil supply - amber
Chemical supply - amber

‘Border disruption could lead to disruption in supply of critical chemicals for food, water, medicine’

‘Low income groups will be disproportionately affected by any rise food in food prices’

‘Groups most at risk of food insecurity include: lone parents & children in large families’

‘One or more water companies cd face significant disruption to the supply of essential chemicals’

Public disorder - red

‘Protests & counter protests across UK..risk of Covid’

Law enforcement- red

‘A mutual reduction in ability to combat crime & terrorism’

‘Continuity of medical supplies’ - red

‘Flow rates could reduce by 60-80 per cent’

‘Adult social care’ - amber

‘Main risk is provider failure though acutely aware of labour & workforce pressures’