1) Quebec set two more grim records Tuesday in the #pandemic's second wave: total number of #COVID19 hospitalizations (655) and biggest spike in deaths (45). In this thread, I'll assess whether the province will be able to allow Christmas gatherings at the rate things are going.

2) Dr. Horacio Arruda, Quebec’s chief public health officer, explained that ideally, he would like the number of daily #COVID19 cases in the province to drop below 1,000. That hasn’t happened for the past seven days, with the daily average at 1,182.

3) Arruda added other factors will come into consideration, including whether hospitalizations continue to rise and contact-tracing investigators become overwhelmed. Projections last Friday warned hospital capacity outside Montreal could be exceeded by mid-December.

4) Thus, were Arruda to give the go-ahead next month for Christmas gatherings with daily #COVID19 cases still above 1,000 and total hospitalizations crossing the 600 mark outside Montreal, he would be at risk of going against the criteria he set forth publicly on Tuesday.

5) If the worsening situation in the province’s eldercare homes is any indication, it looks like the number of daily #COVID19 cases will not drop below 1,000 in the next few weeks, and that hospitalizations and deaths will unfortunately keep climbing.

6) The province recorded a total of 1,588 active #COVID19 cases in long-term care centres and seniors’ residences, up by 32 since Monday. The number of people who have died in these facilities in the second wave increased by 15 to 494.

7) Premier François Legault expressed concern Tuesday about the rising number of #COVID19 outbreaks in private seniors’ residences — an issue I flagged in September when I called upon authorities to devote more resources to these facilities.

8) The #pandemic still poses a problem in schools, too. Schools shut an additional 130 classrooms Tuesday because of #COVID19, bringing the total to 1,139. Eleven more schools identified positive cases, and Solomon Schechter Academy announced it will close all elementary classes.

9) Meanwhile, Montreal posted 284 #COVID19 cases Tuesday, down from 294 on Monday, amid a marked drop in testing in the past couple of days. The city’s rolling seven-day average was still high at 131.34 cases per million population. See below.

10) At the neighborhood level, community transmission of the #coronavirus remained elevated in the center of Montreal as well as the west and east ends. However, a couple of health districts reported fewer than 10 cases each. Please take a look at the chart below.

11) Emergency-room overcrowding acts like a barometer of the pressure on the hospital system that Dr. Arruda said he is monitoring closely. The #coronavirus is increasingly causing hospital outbreaks through the ERs. The ER chart below paints a critical picture. End of thread.