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Charlie Morton: A thread on CFM’s time in Tampa and what his move to Atlanta means for #RaysUp
2019: First of a 2yr/$30m contract with the Rays.
Morton was outstanding finishing 3rd in AL CY Young voting. He would feature among the top 10 of pitchers in all of baseball in W (16), HR/9 (0.69) ( (K/9 (11.25), FIP (2.64) & fWaR (6.1).
Morton was outstanding finishing 3rd in AL CY Young voting. He would feature among the top 10 of pitchers in all of baseball in W (16), HR/9 (0.69) ( (K/9 (11.25), FIP (2.64) & fWaR (6.1).
Without question his best 2 performances came when they were needed most; in the postseason. His 2 phenomenally high quality starts vs. OAK and then against HOU in the ALDS were prime examples of his big game ability
OAK: 5IP 5H 0ER 4K
HOU: 5IP 3H 1ER 9K https://twitter.com/i/status/1181287636759187456
OAK: 5IP 5H 0ER 4K
HOU: 5IP 3H 1ER 9K https://twitter.com/i/status/1181287636759187456
2020:
Morton’s stuff still dominated yet his numbers hinted at potential regression. In 9 starts (2-2) he would only reach go 5IP+ 4 times (44%) compared to 29 times in 2019 (87%)
2019/2020:
FIP: 2.81/3.45
xFIP: 3.28/4.01
K/9: 11.10/9.95
HR/9: 0.69/0.95
BABIP: 0.298/0.355
Morton’s stuff still dominated yet his numbers hinted at potential regression. In 9 starts (2-2) he would only reach go 5IP+ 4 times (44%) compared to 29 times in 2019 (87%)
2019/2020:
FIP: 2.81/3.45
xFIP: 3.28/4.01
K/9: 11.10/9.95
HR/9: 0.69/0.95
BABIP: 0.298/0.355
Like 2019, Morton’s real value to the Rays came in the postseason as he again turned in 2 huge performances against the Astros in the ALCS helping the Rays to their first pennant in over a decade
G2: 5.0IP 4H 0ER 5K
G7: 5.0IP 2H 0ER 6K https://twitter.com/i/status/1317648665448689666
G2: 5.0IP 4H 0ER 5K
G7: 5.0IP 2H 0ER 6K https://twitter.com/i/status/1317648665448689666
Behind the numbers (2019/2020):
Velocity:
4-Seam: 94.7mph vs 93.4mph
Sinker: 93.9mph vs 93mph
Whiff rates:
4-Seam: 29% vs 25%
Curveball: 38% vs 31%
Sinker: 13% vs 11.5%
Exit velocity:
4-Seam: 82.9mph vs 91.3mph
Curveball: 82.9mph vs 88.6mph
Sinker: 89.4mph vs 88.7mph
Velocity:
4-Seam: 94.7mph vs 93.4mph
Sinker: 93.9mph vs 93mph
Whiff rates:
4-Seam: 29% vs 25%
Curveball: 38% vs 31%
Sinker: 13% vs 11.5%
Exit velocity:
4-Seam: 82.9mph vs 91.3mph
Curveball: 82.9mph vs 88.6mph
Sinker: 89.4mph vs 88.7mph
20/21 offseason
As the dust settled following the World Series. The Rays wasted no time in declining Morton’s $15m option. If the Rays wanted Morton for $15m (Braves agreed salary) wouldn’t have declined existing option on him for 2021. MLBTR projected his ‘21 salary at $7-$9m
As the dust settled following the World Series. The Rays wasted no time in declining Morton’s $15m option. If the Rays wanted Morton for $15m (Braves agreed salary) wouldn’t have declined existing option on him for 2021. MLBTR projected his ‘21 salary at $7-$9m
Following signs & in some cases; red flags signifying regression in 2020; whiff rate down 7% on curveball, 1.4mph off fastball, exit velo up 8mph and 6mph on 4seam and curve respectively.
It’s understandable that the Rays would try to re sign him for less than his $15m option
It’s understandable that the Rays would try to re sign him for less than his $15m option
Irrespective of Morton’s regression in 2020, Morton's $15m salary would have likely been too pricey for Tampa anyway. Owing $11.5m to Kiermaier, $10.5m to Snell and $7m to Tstsugo would have put 66% of the Rays projected payroll ($65m) in the pockets of just 4 of their players.
What next?
With a pressing need at the catcher position and not spending the $7-$9m on Charlie Morton as potentially imagined may allow for the Rays to delve into areas of the catching market which were previously prohibited by price (James McCann, Yadi Molina, Jason Castro)
With a pressing need at the catcher position and not spending the $7-$9m on Charlie Morton as potentially imagined may allow for the Rays to delve into areas of the catching market which were previously prohibited by price (James McCann, Yadi Molina, Jason Castro)
How will the Rays staff look?
Assuming he isn’t traded between now and Spring Training; Blake Snell is a formidable lock to join Tyler Glasnow as the Rays 1-2.
Ryan Yarbrough and Josh Fleming will more than likely fill in the 3-4 spots of the rotation.
Assuming he isn’t traded between now and Spring Training; Blake Snell is a formidable lock to join Tyler Glasnow as the Rays 1-2.
Ryan Yarbrough and Josh Fleming will more than likely fill in the 3-4 spots of the rotation.
5th Spot:
From here the Rays can get creative with a cocktail of pitchers:
Brendan McKay & Brent Honeywell (both injury permitting)
Or of course they can chose to delve into the best farm in baseball; Shane Baz, Shane McLanahan, Joe Ryan, Seth Johnson, Micheal Plassmeyer
From here the Rays can get creative with a cocktail of pitchers:
Brendan McKay & Brent Honeywell (both injury permitting)
Or of course they can chose to delve into the best farm in baseball; Shane Baz, Shane McLanahan, Joe Ryan, Seth Johnson, Micheal Plassmeyer
Trade for SP?
As is always seemingly the case with the Rays. Incredibly cash poor and prospect rich. Instead of paying a premium $ price in the FA market. They could cash trade chips from their farm system for a controllable young SP with the upside of arbitration & a lower AAV
As is always seemingly the case with the Rays. Incredibly cash poor and prospect rich. Instead of paying a premium $ price in the FA market. They could cash trade chips from their farm system for a controllable young SP with the upside of arbitration & a lower AAV
Xavier Edwards:
The 67th ranked prospect in baseball is blocked by not only 1,2 or 3 players but 4 within the Rays system. With Adames, Lowe, Franco & Brujan all ahead of Edwards in the Rays middle INF pecking order. It feels as if Edwards may be the big cheque needed for a SP
The 67th ranked prospect in baseball is blocked by not only 1,2 or 3 players but 4 within the Rays system. With Adames, Lowe, Franco & Brujan all ahead of Edwards in the Rays middle INF pecking order. It feels as if Edwards may be the big cheque needed for a SP
