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Why is it so hard to contain the virus?
And why are even well-governed countries like Germany and Canada now experiencing a deadly second wave?
In part because of three biases that keep tempting us into bad decisions.
My latest @TheAtlantic.
Thread. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/11/the-three-biases-screwing-up-americas-coronavirus/617192/
And why are even well-governed countries like Germany and Canada now experiencing a deadly second wave?
In part because of three biases that keep tempting us into bad decisions.
My latest @TheAtlantic.
Thread. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/11/the-three-biases-screwing-up-americas-coronavirus/617192/
1. Misleading Feedback
Humans can learn difficult skills when they get instant feedback. If you put too much salt in the sauce, your pasta will taste memorably bad.
But when the goal is to avoid rare negative outcomes, instant feedback tends to lead us astray.
Humans can learn difficult skills when they get instant feedback. If you put too much salt in the sauce, your pasta will taste memorably bad.
But when the goal is to avoid rare negative outcomes, instant feedback tends to lead us astray.
Every time I cross a road on red, the world sends me the signal that this was fine: "I wasn't hit by a car! All good."
So I'll keep crossing the road on red even if I am incurring an irrationally large lifetime risk of being killed in a car accident to save a few seconds.
So I'll keep crossing the road on red even if I am incurring an irrationally large lifetime risk of being killed in a car accident to save a few seconds.
Exposure to covid works the same way.
If going to a large indoor gathering gives you a 1 in 20 chance of getting the virus, you’ll likely get away with it the first time.
If you then conclude that such gatherings are safe, and go to more, you're likely to fall sick eventually.
If going to a large indoor gathering gives you a 1 in 20 chance of getting the virus, you’ll likely get away with it the first time.
If you then conclude that such gatherings are safe, and go to more, you're likely to fall sick eventually.
2. Individually Rational, Collectively Disastrous
We tend to think behavior that is justifiable on the individual level is also justifiable on the collective level. If eating a sugary treat is fine for me, it’s fine for all of us.
The dynamics of contagion don't work like that.
We tend to think behavior that is justifiable on the individual level is also justifiable on the collective level. If eating a sugary treat is fine for me, it’s fine for all of us.
The dynamics of contagion don't work like that.
If there are few cases in your area—spoiler: there aren't—and you are young & healthy, hanging out with your friends may not pose a huge individual risk.
But if all young, healthy people decide to hang out with their friends, the number of cases is likely to rise precipitously.
But if all young, healthy people decide to hang out with their friends, the number of cases is likely to rise precipitously.
3. Dangers are Hard to Recognize and Avoid
Many dangers we face in life are easy to spot.
Take fire. Most hot objects are easily identified. Your body tells you to stay away from them. Our norms discourage people from playing with fire. Everything conspires to keep us safe.
Many dangers we face in life are easy to spot.
Take fire. Most hot objects are easily identified. Your body tells you to stay away from them. Our norms discourage people from playing with fire. Everything conspires to keep us safe.
When we deal with an unaccustomed danger like a new virus, we can’t rely on any of these protective mechanisms.
The virus is invisible to the naked eye. And if someone holds out a hand to you, your instinct will be to shake it.
Avoiding a fire is easy; avoiding a virus is hard.
The virus is invisible to the naked eye. And if someone holds out a hand to you, your instinct will be to shake it.
Avoiding a fire is easy; avoiding a virus is hard.
In time, we'll develop norms to help us keep these biases in check.
But while these adaptations are slow and imperfect, the logic of contagion is rapid and ruthless.
So please learn about the biases affecting all of us, and do what you can to stay safe.
[End.]
But while these adaptations are slow and imperfect, the logic of contagion is rapid and ruthless.
So please learn about the biases affecting all of us, and do what you can to stay safe.
[End.]
And with that, I'm logging out of Twitter again for a while!
Happy Thanksgiving, everyone.
(What I'm grateful for this year? Not having to spend the next four years thinking about Donald J. Trump every damn day.)
Happy Thanksgiving, everyone.
(What I'm grateful for this year? Not having to spend the next four years thinking about Donald J. Trump every damn day.)
