Picking Winners or Betting Value? ---Both is right!

A popular question and the anwser, i am pretty sure, is simple:

1) Focus on value first.
2) Manage risk by picking winners second.

i.e: Balance value and chance to win in a manner that avoids long losing streaks.

More illustrative:

Betting value is good. But taking a 5-events losing streak only to cash big on the 6th is not how its working optimally.

Losing streaks prevent you to use reinvestment strategies such as Kelly Criterion.

Your effective unit size at the 6th event is so small that you cant gain back what you lost.

---Better a mix of both---

DO: Win every 2nd or 3rd with good value bets.
DONT: chase the super value and give up consistency.

How do I do that?

Sometimes you have to give up some value and increase your chance of winning!

From a social media perspective:

1) Landing value bets: Gets you viral! (We all know cappers doing that)

2) People have short memories and seeing a retweet of you cashing big makes them follow.

3) If you dont deliver afterwards consitently: They leave!

This is the so called SocialMedia-Capper-Spyral:

You go through 1->2->3 and restart at 1:

1->2->3->1->2->3

Are you building a customer base? No!

Only few cappers can deliver the right balance of value & winners.