So how would SpringerNature's 'guided OA' approach work out, based on what is known about rejection rates for Nature sister journals (including Nature Physics, Nature Genetics and Nature Methods?

I did a back-of-the-envelope calculation 1/thread https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03324-y

This 2018 paper looked at 2 years submissions to Nature, Nature Communications and 23 Nature sister journals and allows calculation of desk rejection rate (83%) and rejection after peer review (60%) for Nature sister journals -> overall acceptance 7%

https://doi.org/10.1186/s41073-018-0049-z

2/

In a hypothetical situation, if all authors would choose either the 'guided OA' option or the full APC option, OA revenue would be ~10K lower for the guided OA option per 100 submissions / 7 published articles

(not including transfer to Nature Comms/Comms sister journals)

3/