Thread by @RedCharlotte_, Gun control thread.Will go over all the justifications for gun ownership and [...]

Gun control thread.

Will go over all the justifications for gun ownership and the lack of empirical basis for said justifications.

This thread applies to capitalists and anti capitalists

1/a lot

Preface
- homicide
- suicide
- mass shootings

The justifications that I will go over are
- home/self defense
- defense of others
- Feelings of safety
- overthrowing the government/revolution
- deterring tyranny and oppression
- hunting/rural life
- collecting/recreation/sport

PREFACE
V

Scope of yearly deaths

1a. of American deaths per year, firearm suicides represent 1 in 120 (22938/2744248=0.836%), firearm homicides 1 in 190 (22938/2744248=0.525%), and other firearm injuries 1 in 2100 ((38658-(22938+14415))/2744248=0.0476%): https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr67/nvsr67_05.pdf

1b. firearms are the third leading cause of death among kids below 17 years old: 693 die from firearm homicide, 493 suicide, and 82 accidents: https://www.newsweek.com/guns-kids-third-leading-cause-death-627209 https://pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/early/2017/06/15/peds.2016-3486 https://sci-hub.st/10.1542/peds.2016-3486

Childhood Firearm Injuries in the United States

OBJECTIVES: Examine fatal and nonfatal firearm injuries among children aged 0 to 17 in the United States, including intent, demographic characteristics, trends, state-level patterns, and circumstan...

https://www.newsweek.com/guns-kids-third-leading-cause-death-627209

Economic cost of firearm proliferation

Extreme cost incurred

2a. firearm injury costs are $174.1 billion per year: https://www.childrenssafetynetwork.org/sites/childrenssafetynetwork.org/files/TheCostofGunViolence.pdf

2b. firearm injury hospitalization costs to victims alone are $17.7 billion per year: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0039606014000609 https://sci-hub.st/10.1016/j.surg.2014.02.011

Homicide

The overwhelming amount of evidence points towards a correlative and a causal relationship between firearms proliferation and increased homicide

3a. firearm prevalence 1981-2010 significantly positively correlates with firearm homicide and overall homicide
http://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/abs/10.2105/AJPH.2014.302042 https://sci-hub.st/10.2105/AJPH.2014.302042

controls
v

3b. firearm prevalence 2001-2002 and 2004 significantly positively correlates with overall homicide
https://www.ajpmonline.org/article/S0749-3797(15)00072-0/pdf https://sci-hub.st/10.1016/j.amepre.2015.02.008

controls
v

3c. firearm prevalence 1981-2013 significantly positively correlates with firearm homicide and insignificantly with non-firearm homicide (implying overall increase in homicide)
https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/full/10.1089/vio.2015.0047 https://sci-hub.st/10.1089/vio.2015.0047

controls
v

3d. firearm prevalence correlates with overall violent crime: http://www.cjcj.org/uploads/cjcj/documents/jpj_firearm_ownership.pdf https://web.archive.org/web/20171013095732/http://www.cjcj.org/uploads/cjcj/documents/jpj_firearm_ownership.pdf The current analysis used suicide by firearm as a proxy for gun ownership. Examining violent crime, homicide, rape, robbery, and assault for 1,997 counties

controls
v

Suicide

The overwhelming amount of evidence points towards a correlative and a causal relationship between firearms proliferation and increased suicide

4a. meta-study demonstrates that firearm prevalence correlates with risk of suicide [3.24x] and homicide [2x]: http://www.amjmed.com/article/S0002-9343(15)01030-X/abstract Data were pooled from 16 observational studies that assessed the odds of suicide or homicide

Violent Death Rates: The US Compared with Other High-income OECD Countries, 2010

Violent death is a serious problem in the United States. Previous research showing US rates of violent death compared with other high-income countries used data that are more than a decade old.

http://www.amjmed.com/article/S0002-9343(15)01030-X/abstract

4b. 1% increase of firearm prevalence correlates with a 1.4% increase of overall suicide
https://insights.ovid.com/crossref?an=00005373-200704000-00031 https://sci-hub.st/10.1097/01.ta.0000198214.24056.40

controls
v

4c. males with a firearm in the household have a suicide rate 10x that of those that don't: https://academic.oup.com/aje/article/160/10/929/140858 https://sci-hub.st/10.1093/aje/kwh309

controls
v

4d. Connecticut's permit to purchase (PTP) law for handguns significantly decreased overall suicide: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0091743515002297 https://sci-hub.st/10.1016/j.ypmed.2015.07.013 Connecticut's firearm suicide rates were 15.4% lower than that of its synthetic control during the 10-year post-law period. [....]

Effects of changes in permit-to-purchase handgun laws in Connecticut and Missouri on suicide rates

In 2013, more than 40,000 individuals died from suicide in the United States. Restricting access to lethal means has the potential to prevent suicide,…

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0091743515002297

4e. suicides by firearm are much more effective: https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/means-matter/means-matter/case-fatality/
https://sci-hub.st/10.2105/ajph.90.12.1885
4f. firearms are more fatal than other methods; if the US had comparable firearm prevalence as other countries, it would have 20-38% fewer suicides
http://archive.is/mAcn3

Mass shootings

The overwhelming amount of evidence points towards a correlative and a causal relationship between firearms proliferation and increased mass shooting frequency

5a. higher gun ownership & looser gun laws correlate with higher mass shootings: https://www.bmj.com/content/364/bmj.l542 Mass shootings were defined as independent events in which four or more people were killed by a firearm.
1998-2015

mass shooting addendum

type of firearm and cartridge sizes available matter

5b. higher fatalities and higher woundings occur in active shooter incidents with a semiautomatic rifle than those without: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/2702134 https://sci-hub.st/10.1001/jama.2018.11009

5c. higher-caliber bullets are substantially more likely to result in a death than lower-caliber bullets: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/03/27/upshot/deadly-bullets-guns.html http://archive.is/9WhDj https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2688536 https://sci-hub.st/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2018.0833

JUSTIFICATION DEBUNKS
V

Self defense

Current available data on defensive firearm use suggests that instances of use are rare and usage in said instances does not make you statistically safer overall

Scope

1a. Defensive use of firearms is way rare than most people believe

why to prefer the NCVS to the Kleck data: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/more-guns-do-not-stop-more-crimes-evidence-shows/ http://archive.is/h6MEI
Kleck's data is self-reported, which introduces bias
https://www.nap.edu/catalog/1861/understanding-and-preventing-violence-volume-1

1b. Between 2003 and 2007, approximately 2.1 million household
burglaries were reported to the FBI each year on average.
Household burglaries ending in homicide made up 0.004% of all
burglaries during that period.
https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/ascii/vdhb.txt
http://cdn.ca9.uscourts.gov/datastore/library/2015/11/17/Dimaya_Victimization.pdf

27.6% of the time, a person is home while the burglary occurs; 26% of those people home are harmed. That means 7.2% of burglaries result in someone being injured.
https://tinyurl.com/y48xkg62
0.004% chance of death
0.65% chance of getting seriously injured
0.22% chance of being raped

Efficacy

Guns don't make you safer in defensive scenarios

1a. defensive firearm use occurred in just 0.9% of crimes that had a victim; After any protective action, 4.2% of victims were injured; after SDGU, 4.1% of victims were injured. significantly reduced property loss
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0091743515001188 https://sci-hub.st/10.1016/j.ypmed.2015.03.029

1b. high gun ownership in neighborhoods do not deter home break ins
https://www.nber.org/papers/w8926
no support for a net deterrent effect from widespread gun ownership. Analysis concludes that residential burglary rates tend to increase with community gun prevalence.

The Effects of Gun Prevalence on Burglary: Deterrence vs Inducement

https://www.nber.org/papers/w8926

1c. More effective forms of break in deterrents come in the form of alarms, outdoor cameras, dogs and other security measures https://www.researchgate.net/publication/268444817_Understanding_Decisions_to_Burglarize_from_the_Offender's_Perspective

(PDF) Understanding Decisions to Burglarize from the Offender's Perspective

PDF | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Building on past research, this study closely examined the decision-making processes of 422 randomly-selected, incarcerated... | Find, read and cite all the research you need...

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/268444817_Understanding_Decisions_to_Burglarize_from_the_Offender's_Perspective

1d. In a defensive scenario at home. The best method to increase safety is to retreat and call the appropriate authorities.

https://everytownresearch.org/report/the-inherent-danger-of-stand-your-ground-laws/

Standing your ground increases likelihood of entanglement and having it be the societal norm increases homicides

The Inherent Danger of Stand Your Ground Laws | Everytown Research & Policy

Stand Your Ground laws escalate violence in avoidable situations and do not deter crime. A couple was driving to a Houston mosque during Ramadan when they collided with another car. …

https://everytownresearch.org/report/the-inherent-danger-of-stand-your-ground-laws/

addendum to above point

police response times are extremely quick in the vast majority of places with 50 percent of departments responding within 10 minutes.

More likely to be killed in a confrontation with burglar than to a cop you call to your house https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/casr.30477#:~:text=%E2%9E%A2%20Los%20Angeles%20topped%20the,any%20other%20city%20we%20researched.%E2%80%9D

See how your emergency response time measures up

Chicago and Los Angeles tied for major U.S. cities with the quickest police response time, according to research from a report released by Safe Smart Living. The data was compiled by reviewing...

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/casr.30477#:~:text=%E2%9E%A2%20Los%20Angeles%20topped%20the,any%20other%20city%20we%20researched.%E2%80%9D

Defense of others (good guy with a gun)

1a. 3.1% (5 cases) of active shooter scenarios were ended by an armed non law enforcement individual from 2000 to 2013
https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/active-shooter-study-2000-2013-1.pdf
Does not make up for increased homicides and violence that come with carry laws

1b. right to carry laws are associated with 13-15% higher overall violent crime rates 10 years after adoption: http://www.nber.org/papers/w23510.pdf

1c. unrestricted concealed carry and shall-issue concealed carry laws were associated with 4.4%-6.5% higher overall homicides per capita: https://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/full/10.2105/AJPH.2017.304057 https://sci-hub.st/10.2105/AJPH.2017.304057

Feeling safer (more qualitative)

liberal vs conservative demographic changes intersecting with feelings of comfort regarding firearms

1a. conservatives feel greater personal control when imagining holding a firearm; liberals do not; conservatives feel that an armed civilian entering a public shooting makes the situation less chaotic, while liberals feel it makes it more chaotic:
https://sci-hub.st/10.1086/695761

1b. country is becoming increasingly liberal and increasingly anti gun, meaning more people are becoming uncomfortable around guns

Deterring tyranny and oppression/revolution

Current data indicates that levels of gun ownerships do not correlated with levels of freedom or a states willingness to oppress its citizenry

1a. gun ownership vs freedom house scores
https://thinkprogress.org/civilian-guns-do-not-prevent-tyranny-f831c6aa871c/

2a. revolutions are actually more likely in states with lower firearm ownership (probably spurious, but may be relevant) -- poorer places have fewer guns and more revolutions.

3a. Civil resistance is more effective than violent resistance at regime change, policy change and other changes.
(Chenowith and Stefan 2011)
https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2019/02/why-nonviolent-resistance-beats-violent-force-in-effecting-social-political-change/
movement success is positively predicted by nonviolence and number of participants

Hunting/Rural life

Arguments can be made for niche firearm use in self defense against animals such as wild boar herds and bears that I believe can be justified as violent crime in rural as the risk with gun ownership would be more niche and rare in rural communities.

It should still be more limited than what it is as there is limited data on the extent and scope on defensive firearm usage against animals and other methods of deterrence from animals have been proven more effective such as with bear mace
https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5c13e2e48f51309499864d1d/t/5cae42fbeef1a10d92b12d77/1554924284110/Efficacy_of_Firearms_for_Bear_Deterrence.pdf

I am morally vegan and none of this would matter anyway as I prescribe urbanization and catch, spay and release methods of population control over hunting.

Killing animals is something that is avoidable

Collecting and recreation

I have no moral objection to collecting and recreation so long as it is heavily regulated by the state and ammo couldn't be kept in the home like in Switzerland.

I would like state ran and operated gun ranges where you can store your guns.

I might add more stuff later but for now

THIS IS THE END OF THE THREAD

@benjaminpolitix fight me fool

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