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Today's conversation between @APompliano and @DTAPCAP convinced me to hold my bitcoin for 10+ years.
I was planning on selling in this bull market, but their podcast changed my view in a couple of ways.
Mainly, Dan made me realize how far we are from mass adoption. (1/8)
I was planning on selling in this bull market, but their podcast changed my view in a couple of ways.
Mainly, Dan made me realize how far we are from mass adoption. (1/8)
Let's start with institutions.
We all saw famous investors like Paul Tudor Jones and Stan Druckenmiller speak highly about Bitcoin over the past few months.
But as @DTAPCAP points out, these are the elite 0.1% of investors — they're leaps ahead of everyone else (2/8)
We all saw famous investors like Paul Tudor Jones and Stan Druckenmiller speak highly about Bitcoin over the past few months.
But as @DTAPCAP points out, these are the elite 0.1% of investors — they're leaps ahead of everyone else (2/8)
In fact, even @RayDalio doesn't quite understand the importance of Bitcoin.
https://twitter.com/RayDalio/status/1328731042690306048?s=20
If Ray Dalio doesn't understand Bitcoin, you can bet that the vast majority of pension funds, endowments, and hedge funds aren't taking it seriously (3/8)
https://twitter.com/RayDalio/status/1328731042690306048?s=20
If Ray Dalio doesn't understand Bitcoin, you can bet that the vast majority of pension funds, endowments, and hedge funds aren't taking it seriously (3/8)
In addition, even if these institutions wanted to buy Bitcoin, they couldn't — it's still way too small.
If Blackrock allocated 5% of their AUM to Bitcoin, their investment would exceed Bitcoin's entire market cap (4/8)
If Blackrock allocated 5% of their AUM to Bitcoin, their investment would exceed Bitcoin's entire market cap (4/8)
These institutions are so far behind that most of them don't even have Gold on their balance sheets.
Suffice it to say — mass institutional adoption of Bitcoin is very far away.
So why is this so important? Why not sell a bit now and take some profits? (5/8)
Suffice it to say — mass institutional adoption of Bitcoin is very far away.
So why is this so important? Why not sell a bit now and take some profits? (5/8)
To answer that question, we just have to look at technological adoption curves.
Adoption speeds up with each new technology, but it still happens "gradually then suddenly" (6/8)
Adoption speeds up with each new technology, but it still happens "gradually then suddenly" (6/8)
Take a look at Amazon:
From 1997 - 1999, Amazon's share price increased almost 40x.
But if you zoom out over 20 years, it feels like a blip. (7/8)
From 1997 - 1999, Amazon's share price increased almost 40x.
But if you zoom out over 20 years, it feels like a blip. (7/8)
Adoption of new technology takes longer than we expect.
Bitcoin is the greatest invention in the history of money, but it's going to take institutions 10+ years to figure that out.
You can sell in 1 yr and make 10x.
Or you can be patient and make 1000x. Your choice. (8/8)
Bitcoin is the greatest invention in the history of money, but it's going to take institutions 10+ years to figure that out.
You can sell in 1 yr and make 10x.
Or you can be patient and make 1000x. Your choice. (8/8)
