Today's conversation between @APompliano and @DTAPCAP convinced me to hold my bitcoin for 10+ years.

I was planning on selling in this bull market, but their podcast changed my view in a couple of ways.

Mainly, Dan made me realize how far we are from mass adoption. (1/8)

Let's start with institutions.

We all saw famous investors like Paul Tudor Jones and Stan Druckenmiller speak highly about Bitcoin over the past few months.

But as @DTAPCAP points out, these are the elite 0.1% of investors — they're leaps ahead of everyone else (2/8)

In fact, even @RayDalio doesn't quite understand the importance of Bitcoin.

https://twitter.com/RayDalio/status/1328731042690306048?s=20

If Ray Dalio doesn't understand Bitcoin, you can bet that the vast majority of pension funds, endowments, and hedge funds aren't taking it seriously (3/8)

In addition, even if these institutions wanted to buy Bitcoin, they couldn't — it's still way too small.

If Blackrock allocated 5% of their AUM to Bitcoin, their investment would exceed Bitcoin's entire market cap (4/8)

These institutions are so far behind that most of them don't even have Gold on their balance sheets.

Suffice it to say — mass institutional adoption of Bitcoin is very far away.

So why is this so important? Why not sell a bit now and take some profits? (5/8)

To answer that question, we just have to look at technological adoption curves.

Adoption speeds up with each new technology, but it still happens "gradually then suddenly" (6/8)

Take a look at Amazon:

From 1997 - 1999, Amazon's share price increased almost 40x.

But if you zoom out over 20 years, it feels like a blip. (7/8)

Adoption of new technology takes longer than we expect.

Bitcoin is the greatest invention in the history of money, but it's going to take institutions 10+ years to figure that out.

You can sell in 1 yr and make 10x.

Or you can be patient and make 1000x. Your choice. (8/8)