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While we were hiking down a hill yesterday, my son cut through some switchbacks as a shortcut. I told him that he shouldn't do that, and I pointed to a sign saying the same. He said, it's no big deal. I explained to him why it was important. 1/
It's dangerous and the switchbacks help prevent erosion, I said. He pushed back, saying all the trees are dead anyway, it's just leaves and dirt, and it's not that steep. That's true, I said, but what if everyone did it? 2/
One person cutting through is no big deal, but if a few people do it, you start to kill the plants whose roots hold the soil there. Then others notice and take this path and it gets wider and harder packed. It destroys the views, but that's not the real problem. 3/
Water also likes this new path. When it rains, water finds the quickest way down. This new path becomes a dangerous gully. This erosion impacts the stability of the hillside. The switchback becomes more dangerous and might even get washed out. 4/
Fixing a trail on a washed out hillside is a lot of work, often more difficult than creating the trail in the first place. Even if that doesn't happen, whoever maintains the trail will have to block off the shortcut before it gets too bad, putting up ugly blockades and signs. 5/
So, I said, your individual actions have consequences you don't see. In a small way, you are affecting the park itself, the enjoyment and safety of other hikers, and those who maintain these trails. But it adds up. 6/
It struck me today that public health can be a lot like those switchbacks. We develop policies intended as the best path through the woods for everyone. What will work? What will it cost? What will be fair? 7/
The idea of everyone using the same path is so obvious, but in public health, there is so much resistance from people who refuse to do what is right because they can't or refuse to see beyond themselves. 8/
Carving your own shortcut through the park is selfish. It prioritizes your own enjoyment and convenience over other hikers, over trail maintainers, and over the idea of having a public park at all. Holding a Thanksgiving as usual is similarly selfish. 9/
I often come back to a butchering of Kant or Singer: what if everyone did it? So very often, the right thing to do, the ethical thing to do, is that which lines up with this simple maxim. 10/
We know that travel and gatherings are risky. If everyone does it, the consequences will be bad. And if everyone can't do it, then I shouldn't do it either. What makes me so special? 11/
So much resistance to covid behavior comes down to simple selfishness. Public health is about the common good, but so many people only see things in terms of what will benefit them personally. 12/
It is often true that individual risks are low in a given situation, but population risks are high in total. Over a million Americans get sick from foodborne Salmonella every year, but the individual risks at each meal are very low. 13/
Every year, we see spikes in flu and Salmonella around Thanksgiving. It's a perennial issue, and the only thing different this year is the pathogen. We will see spread. We will see hospitalizations. We will see deaths. The only question is how many. 14/
The timing could not be worse. With covid rates sky high and hospitals nearing capacity Thanksgiving-related cases threaten to overwhelm the system in some places. Every infection gets us closer to the breaking point. 15/
With a contagious disease, when you increase your risk, you create a tree of potential additional risks for other people. Your choices have the potential to affect hundreds of people downstream. 16/
The Farhad Manjoo piece in the NYT was infuriating because of this kind of self-centeredness. He maps out his bubble for incoming risk, but doesn't consider much the risk he bears to others, or to the health care system itself. 17/
If your moral mathematics ends in your own risk of illness, and not what happens after - the stranger you expose in an elevator, the nurse working nonstop, the guy who dies of a heart attacks because the hospital was full - you are being shortsighted and selfish. 18/
I know I'm probably preaching to the choir here, but please reconsider your Thanksgiving plans if they involve traveling or gathering with those you aren't already in a pod with. It sucks, but it is the ethical thing to do. 19/
A traditional Thanksgiving is risky, not only to yourself, but to your loved ones and to people you've never met. You want the love of family, the pleasure of camaraderie, the joys of a big shared meal? Me, too. But that turkey comes with a hefty side of shame. 20/
So don't take that shortcut. Stay on the trail the rest of us are using. Don't be selfish and ruin things for others. Make the call. Suck it up and do the right thing. This year already blows. Please don't make it worse. 21/
