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This @nytimes piece from @apoorva_nyc is great science writing, but I worry it is an example of the streetlight effect.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/23/health/coronavirus-holiday-gatherings.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
The">https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/2... argument is that there is little data to suggest small gatherings drive the surge in covid cases, and that& #39;s true but...
This @nytimes piece from @apoorva_nyc is great science writing, but I worry it is an example of the streetlight effect.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/23/health/coronavirus-holiday-gatherings.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
The">https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/2... argument is that there is little data to suggest small gatherings drive the surge in covid cases, and that& #39;s true but...
That may be because it& #39;s hard to capture data from small gatherings. If you have an outbreak in a jail, you are pretty damn sure it& #39;s from the jail.
How do you pin down that the source was from a backyard barbecue? Without really good contact tracing, you can& #39;t.
How do you pin down that the source was from a backyard barbecue? Without really good contact tracing, you can& #39;t.
The streetlight effect is a form of observational bias that occurs when you look for something where it& #39;s easiest to find (the typical example is a drunk looking for his keys under a streetlight. he lost them in the park, but "that& #39;s where the light is".)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Streetlight_effect">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stre...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Streetlight_effect">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stre...
Take Colorado, for example. The article notes that there are only 81 cases attributed to social gatherings, but a ton more attributed to other places:
But look at the numbers:
-81 from "social gatherings"
-4000 from jails
-3300 from colleges
-2400 from assisted living
-450 restaurants / bars.
That& #39;s 10,231 cases with attribution.
Colorado has had 200,000+ cases of coronavirus. We don& #39;t know the source for the VAST majority.
-81 from "social gatherings"
-4000 from jails
-3300 from colleges
-2400 from assisted living
-450 restaurants / bars.
That& #39;s 10,231 cases with attribution.
Colorado has had 200,000+ cases of coronavirus. We don& #39;t know the source for the VAST majority.
I worry that this article may be taken to convince people that small gatherings are safe, or at least less risky then, I don& #39;t know, being a prisoner or something. This is obviously not the intention, but the internet will internet on this.
