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NEW: It's been said often and it sounds true: Small social gatherings -- people getting together with family and friends -- is driving the current surge.
But is it, really? I looked at the data, and they do not support this claim. 1/x https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/23/health/coronavirus-holiday-gatherings.html
But is it, really? I looked at the data, and they do not support this claim. 1/x https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/23/health/coronavirus-holiday-gatherings.html
Let's be very clear upfront: This doesn't mean social gatherings are safe. Given community rates in most places, nothing is truly safe, and social gatherings undoubtedly do contribute to the spread. This is NOT an excuse for anyone to keep or make big Thanksgiving plans. 2/x
The question I asked was: Is there data to suggest that social gatherings are the "engine" of the surge, as officials keep saying? The answer is no. 3/x
Most states don’t collect or report info about the sources of exposure. But in states where breakdowns are available, long-term care facilities, food processing plants, prisons, health care settings, and restaurants and bars are still the leading sources of spread. 4/x
So why do leaders keep pointing to private gatherings as the problem? "It’s a way of distracting from the harder public health work," @EpiEllie said, and "passing off the responsibility for controlling the outbreak to individuals and individual choices." 5/x
A constant drumbeat about the dangers of social gatherings may help to convey the seriousness of the current surge. On the other hand, in some states the misperception has led to draconian policies that don’t square with science. 6/x
For eg, in Minnesota, people are not allowed to go for a masked and distanced walk outdoors with a friend, but they can attend an indoor wedding of 250 people. Similar policies in Vermont and other places are unscientific and "bizarre" as @AshTuite said 7/x
So yes, be safe, and be careful, and celebrate Thanksgiving with only your own household. But also, don't beat yourself up for that glass of wine you had with a friend the other day. That's not the (biggest) problem here. 8/x
Please read the article to see the data behind my statements here, and for more smart, empathetic commentary from @EpiEllie @JuliaLMarcus @T_Inglesby @JenniferNuzzo @kj_seung and @AshTuite https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/23/health/coronavirus-holiday-gatherings.html
Oh and oops, in the tweet, I mashed up a quote from @EpiEllie with one from @JuliaLMarcus but it's right in the story
