Not sure this is wrong, but I’m pretty sure we can’t know it’s right either. 1/n https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1330876368868044803

Predicting Dem losses in 2022 is not particularly insightful. Presidents’ parties lose seats in midterms, so Dems should expect a setback all else being equal. 2/n

Of course, all else will not be equal because of reapportionment — the 2020 census will take representation from blue states and give it to red states. 3/n

BUT most of the population changes will take representation from red areas of blue states. So places like NY and MI will lose seats, but they’re likely to be seats that elected Reps. It doesn’t hurt Dems overall to send those seats to a red state like TX. 4/n

Likewise, it’s a mistake to presume that this year will be like the last round of redistricting. In particular, Reps had unified control of the governor and legislature in several key states in 2010. More states have divided control this time. 5/n

Divided control means Dems should expect fairer maps in several states that might offset setbacks from reapportionment. 6/n

We are also waiting to see what the effect of several new independent redistricting commissions might be. I am skeptical they will fix the problems in redistricting, but it’s hard to imagine they’ll make things worse. 7/n

In sum, things will probably be bad for Dems in 2022, but there are many reasons to believe that redistricting won’t make things worse. 8/8