Here’s hoping Egypt’s waning geo-strategic importance leads to the release of the EIPR staff. In every dept Egypt is less relevant now to EU and US interests than it was five years ago - yet it behaves as if it was still 2013, when suppressing the Arab Spring united all parties.

Let’s look at the policy pillars:

1. “Regional partner” ie friendship with Israel. Now UAE, Saudi, Bahrain, Sudan all openly allied with Israel.

2. Migration: not the hot topic it was in 2016-2019. Corona has altered populist politics in Europe (& questions of movement).

3. Energy.

Oil shock has massively reduced Suez Canal traffic, lots of oil taking longer route round Africa now.

Egypt’s plans to become major gas supplier to Europe are all postponed, maybe forever, as energy transition to renewables accelerates.

4. Geography

The Saudi-Israel-UAE alliance is going to cut Egypt out of major geographic questions.

Until now all internet between Europe & Asia passed through Egypt - not for much longer. New oil pipeline being activated etc

5. Terrorism

Anyone whose spent five minutes thinking about it knows that the Egyptian state has been an incubator for decades - just look at Sinai today.

6. Capital Export

Egypt has been spending crazy money on weapons and industrial infrastructure from Germany, France & Italy. But this is not a sustainable long term strategy - there is no magic money tree!