Daily reports tell us what happened last week, 2 weeks ago, 4 weeks ago

This is why folks are worried about what's next

Today's 7 day moving avgs

167K cases, 3600 new hospitalizations, 1460 deaths

What does this tell us about upcoming weeks?

It says we have a problem

Today's 167K cases? infection happened last week

Today's 3600 new hospitalizations?

Infections happened about 12-15 days ago

Today's 1460 deaths?

Infections happened about 3+ weeks ago

And that's why we have a problem

About 3.5% of identified cases get hospitalized

CFR right now about 1.7%

So today's new cases will cause:

5000 new hospitalizations in 10 days

2900 new deaths in 3 weeks


Today's hospitalizations were cases 10 days ago

Today's deaths were cases 3 weeks ago

So, best guess by 12/1/2020?

We'll have 120K hospitalized patients

50% more than today

This will strain capacity for hospital care in majority of states well beyond capacity

And it won't be lack of ICU beds, ventilators


We'll struggle with enough doctors, nurses

All based on infections we have already

But we'll add more infections in weeks ahead

Thus I think we'll be beyond capacity in majority of states in next 2-3 weeks

And remember hospitals aren't just for COVID care

Others need it too

Overwhelmed hospitals bad for everyone

And also built in are deaths from COVID in next 3 weeks

I suspect about 40K or more

We'll easily be near 300K deaths by Christmas

Obviously, things can alter this grim scenario

Michigan-style policies to slow spread

Wont help with infections we have but can prevent more

But what can help folks already infected?

Ideally widespread availability of Monoclonal Abs

Scarce supply is the challenge. Can be helpful for high risk folks

So that's should be our strategy;

Targeted restrictions
Push for more therapy
Hope for fast vaccine rollout

You can follow @ashishkjha.
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