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Daily reports tell us what happened last week, 2 weeks ago, 4 weeks ago
This is why folks are worried about what's next
Today's 7 day moving avgs
167K cases, 3600 new hospitalizations, 1460 deaths
What does this tell us about upcoming weeks?
It says we have a problem
Thread
This is why folks are worried about what's next
Today's 7 day moving avgs
167K cases, 3600 new hospitalizations, 1460 deaths
What does this tell us about upcoming weeks?
It says we have a problem
Thread
Today's 167K cases? infection happened last week
Today's 3600 new hospitalizations?
Infections happened about 12-15 days ago
Today's 1460 deaths?
Infections happened about 3+ weeks ago
And that's why we have a problem
2/4
Today's 3600 new hospitalizations?
Infections happened about 12-15 days ago
Today's 1460 deaths?
Infections happened about 3+ weeks ago
And that's why we have a problem
2/4
About 3.5% of identified cases get hospitalized
CFR right now about 1.7%
So today's new cases will cause:
5000 new hospitalizations in 10 days
2900 new deaths in 3 weeks
Corollary
Today's hospitalizations were cases 10 days ago
Today's deaths were cases 3 weeks ago
3/4
CFR right now about 1.7%
So today's new cases will cause:
5000 new hospitalizations in 10 days
2900 new deaths in 3 weeks
Corollary
Today's hospitalizations were cases 10 days ago
Today's deaths were cases 3 weeks ago
3/4
So, best guess by 12/1/2020?
We'll have 120K hospitalized patients
50% more than today
This will strain capacity for hospital care in majority of states well beyond capacity
And it won't be lack of ICU beds, ventilators
Nope
We'll struggle with enough doctors, nurses
3/4
We'll have 120K hospitalized patients
50% more than today
This will strain capacity for hospital care in majority of states well beyond capacity
And it won't be lack of ICU beds, ventilators
Nope
We'll struggle with enough doctors, nurses
3/4
All based on infections we have already
But we'll add more infections in weeks ahead
Thus I think we'll be beyond capacity in majority of states in next 2-3 weeks
And remember hospitals aren't just for COVID care
Others need it too
Overwhelmed hospitals bad for everyone
4/5
But we'll add more infections in weeks ahead
Thus I think we'll be beyond capacity in majority of states in next 2-3 weeks
And remember hospitals aren't just for COVID care
Others need it too
Overwhelmed hospitals bad for everyone
4/5
And also built in are deaths from COVID in next 3 weeks
I suspect about 40K or more
We'll easily be near 300K deaths by Christmas
Obviously, things can alter this grim scenario
Michigan-style policies to slow spread
Wont help with infections we have but can prevent more
5/6
I suspect about 40K or more
We'll easily be near 300K deaths by Christmas
Obviously, things can alter this grim scenario
Michigan-style policies to slow spread
Wont help with infections we have but can prevent more
5/6
But what can help folks already infected?
Ideally widespread availability of Monoclonal Abs
Scarce supply is the challenge. Can be helpful for high risk folks
So that's should be our strategy;
Targeted restrictions
Push for more therapy
Hope for fast vaccine rollout
Fin
Ideally widespread availability of Monoclonal Abs
Scarce supply is the challenge. Can be helpful for high risk folks
So that's should be our strategy;
Targeted restrictions
Push for more therapy
Hope for fast vaccine rollout
Fin
