Daily reports tell us what happened last week, 2 weeks ago, 4 weeks ago

This is why folks are worried about what& #39;s next

Today& #39;s 7 day moving avgs

167K cases, 3600 new hospitalizations, 1460 deaths

What does this tell us about upcoming weeks?

It says we have a problem

Thread
Today& #39;s 167K cases? infection happened last week

Today& #39;s 3600 new hospitalizations?

Infections happened about 12-15 days ago

Today& #39;s 1460 deaths?

Infections happened about 3+ weeks ago

And that& #39;s why we have a problem

2/4
About 3.5% of identified cases get hospitalized

CFR right now about 1.7%

So today& #39;s new cases will cause:

5000 new hospitalizations in 10 days

2900 new deaths in 3 weeks

Corollary

Today& #39;s hospitalizations were cases 10 days ago

Today& #39;s deaths were cases 3 weeks ago

3/4
So, best guess by 12/1/2020?

We& #39;ll have 120K hospitalized patients

50% more than today

This will strain capacity for hospital care in majority of states well beyond capacity

And it won& #39;t be lack of ICU beds, ventilators

Nope

We& #39;ll struggle with enough doctors, nurses

3/4
All based on infections we have already

But we& #39;ll add more infections in weeks ahead

Thus I think we& #39;ll be beyond capacity in majority of states in next 2-3 weeks

And remember hospitals aren& #39;t just for COVID care

Others need it too

Overwhelmed hospitals bad for everyone

4/5
And also built in are deaths from COVID in next 3 weeks

I suspect about 40K or more

We& #39;ll easily be near 300K deaths by Christmas

Obviously, things can alter this grim scenario

Michigan-style policies to slow spread

Wont help with infections we have but can prevent more

5/6
But what can help folks already infected?

Ideally widespread availability of Monoclonal Abs

Scarce supply is the challenge. Can be helpful for high risk folks

So that& #39;s should be our strategy;

Targeted restrictions
Push for more therapy
Hope for fast vaccine rollout

Fin
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