I have a professional friend who was one of the dominant hedge fund managers in oil during the legendary 2003-2008 oil bull run. As the true legend goes, he ran $1bn levered in oil equities on his right hand, and $1bn levered in oil commodity on his left. So it was understood. 1/

They collected art with the fees alone, never mind the 20 of the 2 and 20. This guy was swinging. We were kings of the world, back then, us oil guys. I used to stand in my corner office at DB on 60 Wall St, and yell into the phone looking across at Brooklyn Heights, where I live:

“I can see 22 lanes of traffic here, AND THERE’S A TRAFFIC JAM ON EVERY ROAD! That’s zero efficiency pal! Mate, the cemetery is full of DEAD OIL BEARS. Buy ‘em all…”

Until it ended. Then a decade-long death.

Back then they ran, these oils. There were times when all 22 lanes of traffic were jammed, and in the background a NYH oil barge powered up the East River for the LIE gas stations. .

My view across the East River had 22 lanes of traffic. Six for the BQE. Six for the FDR. Two for the waterfront that side. Four for Water Street. Two for South Street Seaport. Two for Wall Street.

Anyway, this friend had to do the Monday morning firm call for that Major HF, and talk the outlook for the week. And he told me he would come on the call and be all in massively bullish. Firm was playing big. Buy them all.

China was squeezing the oil market and people were saying OPEC was busted out of oil reserves. The oils went up every day.

He would come on that morning call and calmly state – he’s a calm guy: “I’m all in bullish, buy them all.”

But in the same week, he told me, by Tues afternoon he would be furiously selling everything with both hands. And the eponymous head of the firm would hit the squawk and yell “Why are you selling everything oil? I thought you said you were all-in bull yesterday?”

“I did say I was massively bullish yesterday.” Was the response. “I changed my mind. Now I am massively bearish.”

Good luck with these oils, they will chop you up. But on the equities right here, we got buried long “Blue Wave,” got chopped up on a red Senate. and just changed stance: we are all in. Refiners first but all the worst stuff.

Love $OVV on activist. Buy the worst stuff. $OXY warrants max downside $3 on a seven year tenor.

Check out commodity charts. Everything is ripping looking for inflation. Bullish oil equities regardless of the negative fundamentals. Buy refining first and get leverage to oils.

“If you don’t buy them in 2020, when will you buy them?” said an activist on our Happy Hour call (5pm Thursdays). Yep buy them all into Christmas

This week's story from the Sunday Sankey 11/22/20 https://www.sankeyresearch.com/2020/11/22/sunday-sankey-11-22-20/