To date AB has had better COVID19 stats than average:

3.5% hospitalized, 1.1% ICU, 1% deaths - because we identified a large number of nonsevere cases. Now with almost one in 10 tests positive we know there’s significant undercounting.
/1

Low balling: if we keep going at this rate (not even increasing, although it is increasing) - infecting “only” 0.2% of the population weekly (say 1250 x7 days) with previous rates, we’d have about
90 deaths
90 ICU admissions
300 hospital admissions a week. (full facilities)
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Moderate estimate:
If we are undercounting and 1% pop infected weekly, using modest rates as above again
440 deaths
440 ICU admissions
1540 hospital admissions a week.
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Note: Some places are seeing 2-3% of population infected weekly in the US, and easily 5-10% hospitalization rates and 20% of that needing ICU, and 3% case fatality rates.
That would be weekly (2.5% pop, 7.5% hosp, 1.5% ICU, 3% CFR)
- so:
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110000 infected /week (15000/day like in Montana)
3850 deaths
8250 hosp
1650 ICU

Hospitals usually have 50-800 beds total and usually run at >90% capacity. There are “usually” 9000 hospital beds in AB in use.

Hospital stays are 7-14 days on average.
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RIGHT NOW, usual operation: short staffed because quarantine, sickness, and health care workers leaving.
These are illustrative ranges, rounded off, and ....do we see the problem yet?
Even the best case scenario puts us over capacity to provide usual care in 1-2 weeks.
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No hospital system can be designed to handle an uncontrolled pandemic.
The infrastructure and healthcare worker requirement would be astronomical and frankly nonsustainable between pandemics.
That is why we have to control pandemics.

(Plus 15-25% of those needing ICU die.)
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