A few years ago, a close friend was offered a phenomenal job but it meant a career switch. He asked for advice. We had hour long discussions over days going over pros and cons. Eventually we agreed that it was an awesome move.

(It could be that he didn’t agree with me but just went along to not hurt my feelings. I have been part of many such discussions with people where they appear to be seeking advice but what they really want is affirmation of what they have already decided).

I was reading “Everything Store” by Brad Stone and came across this paragraph about Bezos and sent this to him.

To which he replied that Bezos has the privilege of being quoted this because his bet succeeded. There will be many more like him that followed this framework
مگر وہ تاریک راہوں میں مارے گئے
And sent me this

His perspective made sense. I wonder if he was having doubts. A few days later I came across this in Maubossin’s “Success Equation” about under sampling of failure and told him that he is right. Luck and circumstances also play a role.

Anyway he accepted the job and it turned out better than we expected.

But now that I look back at my own career achievements, I can’t help but appreciate the role of luck ie being at the right place at the right time.