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It’s difficult to get our minds around exponential growth because it’s largely invisible to us, even though we’re surrounded by it in our daily lives. (Mold grows exponentially. And yeast. And populations. And your money, with compound interest.)
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So let’s try to get our minds around it.
Imagine you made a deal with your bank, and convinced them to give you 1 penny on the first day of the month, then double it every day thereafter. So on day two, you have 2 cents. Day three, 4 cents; day 5, 8 cents, and so on.
Imagine you made a deal with your bank, and convinced them to give you 1 penny on the first day of the month, then double it every day thereafter. So on day two, you have 2 cents. Day three, 4 cents; day 5, 8 cents, and so on.
By day 8 you have a buck-28. So what. Big deal.
By day 15 you have $163. Okay, nice.
By day 15 you have $163. Okay, nice.
When will you have over half a million dollars?
Answer: 12 days later, on day 27. On that day, you’ll have $671,088.64
Answer: 12 days later, on day 27. On that day, you’ll have $671,088.64
When will you be a millionaire?
Answer: the next day, on day 28. On that day, you’ll have $1.3 million.
Answer: the next day, on day 28. On that day, you’ll have $1.3 million.
On day 30, you’ll have $5.3 million.
Day 1: 1 cent
Day 30: $5.3 million
Day 1: 1 cent
Day 30: $5.3 million
If you’re a visual person…
Days 1 through 7:
Days 1 through 7:
Days 8 and 10:
Day 22:
Day 30:
Okay. I used humor to get your attention and help you understand with those graphics.
But there’s nothing funny at all about exponential growth when it comes to viral infections.
But there’s nothing funny at all about exponential growth when it comes to viral infections.
Amy Acton was expecting cases to eventually double around every 6 days. https://www.news5cleveland.com/news/continuing-coverage/coronavirus/ohio-department-of-health-says-100-000-ohioans-are-carrying-coronavirus">https://www.news5cleveland.com/news/cont...
She was very close. November 3: https://www.daytondailynews.com/news/coronavirus-ohio-reports-4000-daily-cases-for-second-straight-day/EFXRKNT7KVEZRH4Y6U5PQ4LFYI/">https://www.daytondailynews.com/news/coro...
November 13: https://abc6onyourside.com/news/local/november-13-coronavirus-in-ohio-update">https://abc6onyourside.com/news/loca...
Let’s go to national numbers.
Another way of looking at this: of all the cases the United States has had to date, 25% of them have been in the last 3 weeks. https://twitter.com/saradannerdukic/status/1330384325074890753?s=20">https://twitter.com/saradanne...
Another way of looking at this: of all the cases the United States has had to date, 25% of them have been in the last 3 weeks. https://twitter.com/saradannerdukic/status/1330384325074890753?s=20">https://twitter.com/saradanne...
50% of them have been since September 1. https://covidtracking.com/data/national/cases">https://covidtracking.com/data/nati...
