A quick thread for the #ButNorway! bears: Let's just check your acceptance of a few basic facts here.

1) You do realize that Tesla's global sales have consistently grown corresponding to *new capacity growth*, right?

2) You do realize that this corresponds to *production limitation*, regardless of where they choose to allocate production (wait times) or what pricing they choose - right?

3) You do realize that a company exponentially shifts demand with linear adjustments in prices, right?

4) You do realize that the indicator of how much a company needs to boost demand, relative to their prod. capacity, is encapsulated in their auto margins, right?

5) You do realize that Tesla's margins are *growing*, and are now a huge >27% wo/credits, >22% w/credits - right?

6) You do realize that Tesla has to pay to ship cars across the Atlantic and is then hit with 10% tariffs, before we then encounter said huge margins *on top of that*, right?

7) You do realize that that shipping & those tariffs will soon be going away due to Giga Berlin, right?

8) You do realize that by contrast to Tesla's huge margins, when VW was last asked about reports that they'd lose several k € per ID.3 they said they expected to be able to bring them positive (e.g. confirming the report), & that was *before* their production debacles - right?

9) You do realize that the reason they're selling vehicles that they lose money on is to offset EU emissions fines - but simultaneously, most vehicles they sell come at the expense of an ICE they would have actually made money on, right?

10) You do realize that if you continually lose money or make only small margins on a vehicle, while your competitors make huge / growing margins, *you will eventually die*, right?

11) You do realize that the Model 3 has been on sale in Europe for two years, while ID.3 itself is brand new on the market and has been being built and stockpiled due to software delays, with the backlog just now hitting the market, right?

12) You do realize that meanwhile there's massive backlog in Europe for *Tesla's most popular model*, Model Y, right?

13) You do realize that said deliveries begin 1H of next year, right?

14) You do realize that demand for MY over M3 is *highest* in northern countries that experience a lot of snow and/or have rugged terrain, right?

15) You do realize that *even if Tesla's long-term sales in *all* markets were proportional to what they are in your hand-picked-to-

...look-bad "NL+NO" over 2020, around the entire world, that as the rest of the world electrified, Tesla would *nonetheless* rise to higher annual global sales than the highest 2030 analyst forecasts, right? And thus Tesla's automotive segment would *still* be undervalued?

16) You do realize that Tesla's automotive segment is the *least* undervalued aspect of Tesla, right? For example, Adam Jonas just valued Tesla Energy at $12/share, based on expectations of 11.8 GWh of storage deployed by 2030. In the real world, by 2030, TE's *annual*...

storage deployments will be measured in *TWh* in 2030.

Just checking up on whether you realize and fully grok these things.

@threadreaderapp unroll