Slaoui, speaking to @jaketapper, lays out an aggressive vaccination timeline

If he& #39;s right, we& #39;ll see virus spread starting to slow from growing population immunity by end of January into February

And much better by March

How?

Short thread https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1330513113624555522">https://twitter.com/atrupar/s...

By end of January, based on timeline laid out:

50M vaccinated

And I suspect 60M infected, recovered by then

Obviously overlap between groups

So likely at 30%+ population immunity by 1/31/2021

That& #39;ll slow spread

By end of Feb, probably 40%+

Not "herd immunity"

But

2/4

Herd immunity not like a light switch

As population immunity builds, spread slows

By 30-40% immunity, spread becomes meaningfully slower

When we get to HI threshold, infections won& #39;t "disappear" overnight

But they will stop being self-sustaining

3/4

So that& #39;s why we have to be aggressive in controlling virus through January

Feb/March: building population immunity from vaccinations on top of infections we suffered, will make things better

And by April/May, if all goes well, life will be much better!

2021

Its not 2020

Fin