Slaoui, speaking to @jaketapper, lays out an aggressive vaccination timeline

If he's right, we'll see virus spread starting to slow from growing population immunity by end of January into February

And much better by March


Short thread
By end of January, based on timeline laid out:

50M vaccinated

And I suspect 60M infected, recovered by then

Obviously overlap between groups

So likely at 30%+ population immunity by 1/31/2021

That'll slow spread

By end of Feb, probably 40%+

Not "herd immunity"


Herd immunity not like a light switch

As population immunity builds, spread slows

By 30-40% immunity, spread becomes meaningfully slower

When we get to HI threshold, infections won't "disappear" overnight

But they will stop being self-sustaining

So that's why we have to be aggressive in controlling virus through January

Feb/March: building population immunity from vaccinations on top of infections we suffered, will make things better

And by April/May, if all goes well, life will be much better!


Its not 2020

You can follow @ashishkjha.
Tip: mention @twtextapp on a Twitter thread with the keyword “unroll” to get a link to it.

Latest Threads Unrolled: