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Some reflections on the PM's 10-point climate plan, now I have had a chance to read the main document thoroughly (including trying to read between the lines).
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/936567/10_POINT_PLAN_BOOKLET.pdf
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/936567/10_POINT_PLAN_BOOKLET.pdf
First, to underline the points I made in this thread. This is a big step forward in ambition. It shows evidence the Government is willing to take political risk, most obviously with the 2030 decision on ICEs. https://twitter.com/guynewey/status/1328967065445785601
What else? The announcement of the taskforce contained important language: 'To drive our progress towards this national priority, the Prime Minister will establish a new Task Force Net Zero, putting a systems approach at the heart of our thinking.'
Taking a systems approach is something Government has been exploring for a while. The excellent Council for Science and Technology Paper describe how such an approach could work in practice. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/achieving-net-zero-carbon-emissions-through-a-whole-systems-approach
My musings on the issue below: the need for new in-market test environments; importance of consumers and design thinking; that integration of technologies is as important an innovation challenge as developing new tech; integrating new digital tech https://medium.com/@guynewey/fixing-the-system-how-to-take-a-systems-approach-to-net-zero-96f62adbcbdd
The systems approach was most obviously championed by Dominic Cummings. Will his departure diminish its salience? I don't think so, partly because it responded to a genuine challenge that civil servants have been struggling with for a while when approaching net zero....
... How do we join all this stuff up and make sure it works? A key test for the taskforce is whether it can help embed a systems approach to Net Zero, without a key political sponsor. I am optimistic....
(BTW this is the kind of policy/practical issue that really matters but does not get much attention in all the hubbub about departing spads, as @jameskirkup pointed out recently.) https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-this-downing-street-debacle-doesn-t-matter
On buildings, the plan was less cooked, unsurprisingly. Heat and Buildings Strategy still to come, which hopefully will set out more detail on how to achieve excellent ambition like the 600k heat pumps by 2028 target. Full spending review delay could be a problem for ambition.
Most intriguing was the line that followed the target: "creating a market-led incentive framework to drive growth, and will bring forward regulations to support this especially in off gas grid properties..."
This is the first time there has been such forward-leaning language on market-driven solutions/regulation on heat, I think (happy to be corrected)....
There are basically four options for where you could put a heat decarb obligation: gas grid, manufacturers of heating tech (akin to automakers carbon standards), suppliers or on building owners themselves.....
In our '6 Steps to Decarbonising Buildings' work we came down on giving building owners the ultimate obligation, starting with social housing and probably commercial building owners, giving plenty of notice to homeowners https://es.catapult.org.uk/comment/six-steps-to-zero-carbon-buildings/
Any kind of obligation could be transformative. It would give suppliers and others the confidence to invest in low carbon heating propositions and services that people want -- unleashing market innovation. More investable that a carbon price, I would argue. But political risk..
There is also significant money (or suggestion of future money) for social housing, public sector and off-gas grid properties, as well as Green Home Grant extension. Which is all to be welcomed (already seeing more clean heat adverts)....
But in order for people to spend money on training for low carbon heating engineers, this needs to be multi-year (or with a clear market driver), as per recent @betateachpod on-the-ground discussion with @Your_Energy_YW.
In the rhetorical heating horse-race between hydrogen and heat pumps (perhaps the most boring race in history), this document probably leans slightly towards hydrogen. Hydrogen towns could be a galvanising project, but there needs to be much more sub-national action.
The challenge for heat pumps remains as it ever was: creating compelling consumer propositions that help make an unfamiliar technology easy and desirable for consumers. (And we never talk enough about heat networks)....
And the confirmation of the £1bn innovation budget is fantastic news. Reminder that this was doubled in 2015 Spending Review and now doubled again. Also reflects the hard yards the department has done on assessing Net Zero innovation needs. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/energy-innovation-needs-assessments
But innovation will only be unleashed at the pace and scale required when there are clear markets to sell into. The 10-point plan is unsurprisingly tech focused. Things like market reform and code bodies are not exactly PM announcement territory.
And, so, attention now shifts to the Energy White Paper and the other climate publications over the next 6 months, inc. the update to the Clean Growth Strategy. The challenge is to knit all these announcements into a credible, whole system plan. Going to be a big 12 months...
