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how to lie with correlations: harley davidson limited edition.
there has been a lot of aggressive talk about how sturgis was a massive super spreader event
charts like this make it tempting to agree.
but be very careful about doing so: there's a big issue with this graph
there has been a lot of aggressive talk about how sturgis was a massive super spreader event
charts like this make it tempting to agree.
but be very careful about doing so: there's a big issue with this graph
it's from 5000 miles away and across an ocean.
as one can rapidly see "cases" measured here are in eastern europe, not the american midwest.
hard to imagine the harley folk having caused this no matter how hard they partied.
as one can rapidly see "cases" measured here are in eastern europe, not the american midwest.
hard to imagine the harley folk having caused this no matter how hard they partied.
interestingly enough, south dakota and czechia look incredibly similar in terms of disease curve (deaths per million population) despite having totally different responses.
(the CZE data is real day of death, so it lags. the last 10-14 days are likely incomplete)
(the CZE data is real day of death, so it lags. the last 10-14 days are likely incomplete)
their outcome is so similar you'd be tempted to say they must share a biome, but clearly, they don't.
what they do share is an approximate latitude and climate.
prague has avg temps for nov of 34-43
sioux falls: 23-42
what they do share is an approximate latitude and climate.
prague has avg temps for nov of 34-43
sioux falls: 23-42
covid seems to come in regional waves and those waves cluster by latitude. the april surge in the US was mostly northeast to IL.
the summer surge was southern.
we're now getting mid and mountain west, esp in the north.
the summer surge was southern.
we're now getting mid and mountain west, esp in the north.
and the EU is seeing the same. eastern europe did not get his in the spring. they have been getting their surge now.
masks, lockdowns, distancing all look irrelevant.
croatia has done none. they have the same curve as all the neighbors. https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1329061542571216900?s=20
masks, lockdowns, distancing all look irrelevant.
croatia has done none. they have the same curve as all the neighbors. https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1329061542571216900?s=20
correlation is not causality. when your covid season hits, it hits.
ask peru and argentina who everyone thought were NPI success stories and now lead in deaths per capita.
we keep trying to claim that region first surges are some sort of second wave and it's misleading.
ask peru and argentina who everyone thought were NPI success stories and now lead in deaths per capita.
we keep trying to claim that region first surges are some sort of second wave and it's misleading.
a lot of very shoddy science is being used to underwrite a lot of very costly and thoroughly baseless policy.
so, be very careful about what you accept as "evidence."
if a picture speaks 1000 words, imagine how many lies a graph can tell.
food for thought.
so, be very careful about what you accept as "evidence."
if a picture speaks 1000 words, imagine how many lies a graph can tell.
food for thought.
