https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🚨" title="Polizeiautos mit drehendem Licht" aria-label="Emoji: Polizeiautos mit drehendem Licht">NEW https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🚴" title="Person biking" aria-label="Emoji: Person biking">‍‍https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🚴" title="Person biking" aria-label="Emoji: Person biking"> ‍PAPER ALERThttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🚨" title="Polizeiautos mit drehendem Licht" aria-label="Emoji: Polizeiautos mit drehendem Licht">

So, please, cast your mindhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔙" title=""Back" mit nach links zeigendem Pfeil darüber" aria-label="Emoji: "Back" mit nach links zeigendem Pfeil darüber">to the days when people commuted to work

We ask:

Why does cycle commuting thrive in some London boroughs more than othershttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="❓" title="Rotes Fragezeichen-Symbol" aria-label="Emoji: Rotes Fragezeichen-Symbol">

With @morciano_m @Marc_S05 @AUHE_Leeds @HEG_UEA

/1 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ehb.2020.100945">https://doi.org/10.1016/j...

We use the amazing @UKDSCensus microdata:
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="💥" title="Symbol für eine Kollision" aria-label="Emoji: Symbol für eine Kollision">a 5% population-representative sample of person-level #UKCensus records

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🚴‍♀️" title="Radfahrende Frau" aria-label="Emoji: Radfahrende Frau">We include 11199 commuters where cycle is
the main mode & 305918 other commuters

& link them to geographic data
e.g.
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⛰️" title="Berg" aria-label="Emoji: Berg">hills
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="💷" title="Banknote mit Pfund-Zeichen" aria-label="Emoji: Banknote mit Pfund-Zeichen">cycle infrastructure spend

/2

Part of the answer lies in variation in population characteristics between boroughs

Commuter cycling was:

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🚴‍♀️" title="Radfahrende Frau" aria-label="Emoji: Radfahrende Frau">less common among women vs men
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🚴‍♀️" title="Radfahrende Frau" aria-label="Emoji: Radfahrende Frau">much less common among most ethnic minority groups

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="😮" title="Gesicht mit offenem Mund" aria-label="Emoji: Gesicht mit offenem Mund">Even after controlling other area & person-level characteristics

/3

Another explanation was variation in cycling infrastructure:

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="💷" title="Banknote mit Pfund-Zeichen" aria-label="Emoji: Banknote mit Pfund-Zeichen">Borough-level cycling infrastructure spending (& #39;01 to & #39;11) was +ve associated with changes in cycling (& #39;01 to & #39;11) after controlling for population changes

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🧐" title="Gesicht mit Monokel" aria-label="Emoji: Gesicht mit Monokel">This relationship may vary by gender, ethnicity & SES

/4

But here& #39;s a thing: we can& #39;t really judge if this spend was & #39;value for money& #39; without a comparison with:

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👉" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach rechts" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach rechts">economic evaluations of other cycling projects (we couldn& #39;t find any)

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👉" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach rechts" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach rechts">other health or transport projects (we couldn& #39;t reliably calculate health benefits or QALYs)

/5

And there are many other potential benefits of cycle infrastructure that we couldn& #39;t measure:

e.g.
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🚸" title="Kinder überqueren" aria-label="Emoji: Kinder überqueren">children cycling to school
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🚴‍♀️" title="Radfahrende Frau" aria-label="Emoji: Radfahrende Frau">commuters cycling to the station
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🏃‍♀️" title="Läuferin" aria-label="Emoji: Läuferin">lots of us doing more walking & running
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🌇" title="Sonnenuntergang über Gebäuden" aria-label="Emoji: Sonnenuntergang über Gebäuden">nicer places to live & work

Are there other limitations?

Yeshttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten">

/6

P.S. We also drew concentration curves

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🚴" title="Person biking" aria-label="Emoji: Person biking">‍In London, cycle commuting was concentrated among higher socioeconomic groups & become more concentrated over time

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿" title="Flagge von England" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von England">Elsewhere in England it stayed concentrated among lower SES groups

(45° line if cycling were evenly distributed)https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten">

And finally -

Here& #39;s a quick overview of some nice commuter cycling studies we came across when doing this work

(1)

Lots of evidence showing
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⬆️" title="Pfeil nach oben" aria-label="Emoji: Pfeil nach oben">cycling=https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⬆️" title="Pfeil nach oben" aria-label="Emoji: Pfeil nach oben">health & https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⬆️" title="Pfeil nach oben" aria-label="Emoji: Pfeil nach oben">wellbeing

Most recently by @CHEyork @dukester24 https://doi.org/10.1002/hec.4184">https://doi.org/10.1002/h...

(2)

Another using #UKCensus finds cycle vs car commuting is associated with:
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👉" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach rechts" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach rechts">20% lower rate of all-cause mortality
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👉" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach rechts" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach rechts">24% lower rate of CVD mortality
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👉" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach rechts" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach rechts">16% lower rate of cancer mortality

@anthonylav @CedarUK http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30079-6">https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S...

(3)

Similar to our study, Anna Goodman @JennaPanter @CedarUK used #UKCensus data to investigate the role of investment in English Cycle Demonstration Towns between & #39;01 & & #39;11

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👉" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach rechts" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach rechts">Commuter cycling increased by 0.69 percentage points vs control group towns https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2013.08.030">https://doi.org/10.1016/j...

(4)

Jinhyun Hong @UrbanBigData used @StravaMetro data to investigate new cycling infrastructure in Glasgow around the time of the Commonwealth Games between & #39;13 & & #39;16

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👉" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach rechts" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach rechts"> Monthly total volume of cycling trips made by app users increased by around 15% https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-019-09988-4">https://doi.org/10.1007/s...

(5)

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🚴‍♀️" title="Radfahrende Frau" aria-label="Emoji: Radfahrende Frau">The Propensity to Cycle tool estimates how much commuter cycling would be required in specific towns and cities to meet specified national targets, after accounting for local factors

@robinlovelace @ITSLeeds @CedarUK

https://doi.org/10.5198/jtlu.2016.862">https://doi.org/10.5198/j...

(6)

Also using #UKCensus data, @RachelAldred finds that increasing cycling mode share is insufficient to create an inclusive cycling culture

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👉" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach rechts" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach rechts">It may be necessary to deliberately target cycling infrastructure towards currently under-represented groups https://doi.org/10.1080/01441647.2015.1014451">https://doi.org/10.1080/0...