1) Three weeks into November, Quebec has so far declared 534 #COVID19 deaths for the month, greater than the total number of such fatalities in September and October combined. In this thread, I will comment on the risks in trying to spin #pandemic numbers in a positive light.

2) Looking on the positive side, one could focus on active #COVID19 cases in Quebec, which have dropped from 12,053 Tuesday to 11,348 Saturday. But those numbers are somewhat suspect, as the province has been struggling to clear a daily backlog of 4,000 #COVID19 tests.

3) Given that some Montreal workers who are told to get tested are not doing so and that the government is not screening asymptomatic individuals, authorities still don’t have the clearest possible picture of the #COVID19 contagion in Quebec despite increased testing.

4) Although case numbers are relevant, the more reliable indicators on the severity of the #pandemic are hospitalizations and deaths. From Nov. 1 to Nov. 21, the number of #COVID19 hospitalizations jumped from 499 to 646. ICU stays rose from 81 to 99.

5) Another indicator to follow closely are #COVID19 outbreaks. Quebec started making public provincial figures on Nov. 5, so a full month is not yet available for scrutiny. The best alternative is to review the undeniable surge in workplace outbreaks in Montreal.

6) The number of #COVID19 workplace clusters in the metropolis stood at 58 (infecting 196 employees) on Oct. 27. By Thursday, that number jumped to 104 (infecting 363 workers). More than one-third of those outbreaks (32) are occurring in the retail sector.

7) Another important indicator is data from schools. On Oct. 30, the Education Ministry reported that it shuttered 956 classrooms amid 2,472 active #COVID19 cases among students and staff. By Friday, those numbers climbed to 1,242 classrooms and 3,569 cases.

8) One might be tempted to focus on how the #pandemic is far worse in some European countries and the U.S. It's tempting to note Ontario’s 146 ICU patients. One might want to highlight Quebec’s 112,734 #COVID19 recoveries. But doing so risks lulling us into a false complacency.

9) Meanwhile, Montreal is on track to cross the cumulative threshold of 50,000 #COVID19 cases by the end of next week. On Saturday, the city posted 256 cases. Toronto has been recording nearly double that number in recent days, one reason why it’s now in a near-total lockdown.

10) Finally, Montreal added another three #COVID19 fatalities to a death toll that’s reached 3,591. For the sake of comparison, the city of Boston (one-third Montreal’s population) has counted 892 deaths in the #pandemic. End of thread. Stay safe, everyone.

Addendum: in Tweet 6, I should have written that nearly one-third of workplace outbreaks in Montreal are in the retail sector, not more than one-third. My apologies.